The daytime decline should be attributed to two factors. One is the recalibration of Trump's tariffs, which was mentioned over the weekend and may cause slight fluctuations in risk markets. The market's main concern is actually uncertainty, not a fixed tariff. Looking at it now, the cancellation of IEEPA is definitely a good thing. In the long run, it’s clear that Trump cannot rely on tariffs as a routine weapon anymore.

Currently, the series of combined tariffs have an upper limit. For example, the 15% cap under the Section 122 bill is the maximum. During the trade disputes with China, tariffs of 30% and 40% were also implemented, so things are much better now. However, Trump will definitely seek to make up for it, so there will be other tariff combinations, which could impact certain industries and introduce some uncertainty.

This uncertainty results in short-term volatility. Additionally, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran will also influence the market, but these are likely the main narratives at the moment. The key factors to watch are liquidity and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Looking at the data, although the weekend’s turnover rate wasn’t high, recent events have been numerous. The chaos caused by short-term tariffs and increased geopolitical conflicts may keep the market volatile. However, the cancellation of IEEPA tariffs is definitely positive in the medium to long term. It’s just uncertain what the White House’s next move will be.

Other data still appear normal, but liquidity has not shown significant improvement. The impact of tariffs on the Federal Reserve may also take time to become evident. The first half of this year will still be quite challenging. Market sentiment is very tense, and a collapse could happen in an instant. A rebound to around 65,500-66,300-66,800 could be a good point to short, with targets at 64,350 and 62,300.