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Will Trump’s tariff policy increase to 15% and will a trade war break out again?

On February 21st, local time, U.S. President Trump posted on his social platform “Truth Social” that he will raise the import tariff rate on global goods from 10% to 15%. If the 10% temporary global tariff policy signed yesterday was to replace the old tariff policy deemed illegal by the U.S. Supreme Court, serving as a hedge between good and bad news, then today’s tariff increase is a real negative. It not only has provocative implications for U.S. trade partners worldwide but may also trigger retaliatory measures from other countries.

German Chancellor Merkel stated on the 21st local time that she will visit Washington in a little over a week to hold talks with President Trump on U.S. tariff policies, aiming to coordinate the EU’s stance and engage in negotiations with Trump. If the negotiations fail, it could potentially spark a new round of tariff wars.

For the crypto market, after the announcement, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced only slight declines, with reactions not very strong, possibly due to lower market liquidity over the weekend. The negative effects of this policy are still quite evident.

👉 On the global economy:

‌Bloomberg Economics‌ predicts that an average tariff level of 15% will slow global economic growth from 3.2% to 2.9%, and lead to about a 20% decrease in exports to the U.S.

‌World Trade Organization‌ warns that this policy poses an “unprecedented” disruption to the international trading system in 80 years, with global merchandise trade growth expected to be only 0.5% by 2026.

‌World Bank‌ points out that the current effective U.S. tariff rate has approached 15%, the highest in nearly a century, dragging global trade growth down to 1.8% in 2025, the weakest since the 2008 financial crisis.

👉 Impact on gold and silver markets:

On one hand, escalating tariffs increase global economic instability, undoubtedly pushing up the prices of safe-haven assets. On the other hand, a weakening U.S. dollar index reduces holding costs and enhances gold’s appeal as a non-dollar asset. The market views gold as a direct hedge against trade conflicts and policy uncertainties. After last Friday’s gold price broke through $5,100 per ounce, technical indicators showed strength, and an upward trend is expected to continue into next Monday. Gold and silver traders can consider pre-positioning in perpetual contracts.

👉 Impact on the crypto market:

This tariff increase mainly has a negative impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum, which is obvious. Referring to the severe impact of previous U.S.-China and U.S.-Europe tariff wars on the crypto market, everyone should pay attention to this tariff hike. The open interest in crypto derivatives contracts decreased by 18% within 24 hours, reflecting a proactive reduction in institutional risk exposure from one side.

👀 Follow-up concerns:

1. Will Trump’s temporary tariff policy and the tariff increase trigger retaliatory measures from major trading countries like China and Europe?

2. Although the 15% tariff is based on the legal authority under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the President to declare the maximum tariff rate, it is also necessary to monitor whether Trump will adopt other measures to covertly continue raising tariffs.