Twenty-Seventh Day · Why "Self-Attribution Bias" Is Your Biggest Cognitive Debt

This is #币圈100天成长计划 Day 27/100.
🧠 A Hidden Psychological Trap:
When making money, you think it's because you're smart;
When losing money, you think it's because the market is stupid.
This is not a joke.
It is one of the most stubborn cognitive biases in psychology:
Self-Attribution Bias.
💎 Today's Core Cognition: Your success may not belong to you, and your failure may not belong to the market
First Layer: In a bull market, everyone is a genius
Have you noticed a phenomenon:
During a bull market, everyone in the group is an "analyst",
More people post gains than post pictures of their kids,
Every decision seems incredibly wise.
But the truth is:
90% of the success at that time was Beta (the market itself rising), only 10% was Alpha (your ability).
It's just human nature to take 90% of the credit and attribute it to yourself.
Second Layer: In a bear market, the market becomes the scapegoat
Then the bear market arrives.
Same you, same strategy, same decision habits—
But this time, you lost money.
So you hear:
"Whales harvesting," "Market irrationality," "Policy crackdown," "Institutions dumping"…
Each reason seems valid, but none point to yourself.
But the truth is:
90% of the losses at that time were your own fault, only 10% were due to the market.
It's just human nature to push 90% of the responsibility onto the market.
Third Layer: The most dangerous consequence
This bias will cause you:
▫️ To be unable to replicate success — because you don't really understand how success was achieved
▫️ To be unable to avoid failure — because you never admit failure is your own problem
▫️ To stay stuck in the same place — every bull and bear cycle follows the same script, same ending
You earn cognitive capital but think it's ability;
You lose ability capital but think it's luck.
✨ Today's Thinking Tool: Build your "Attribution Reconciliation Table"
After each trade, regardless of profit or loss, force yourself to fill out this table:
📊 Profit Attribution (Honest Version)
▫️ What percentage is due to the overall market rise?%
▫️ What percentage is due to luck (happened to catch the hot spots)?%
▫️ What percentage is due to my research/judgment?____%
▫️ If I had to do it again, could I replicate this success?【Yes / No / Unsure】
📉 Loss Attribution (Honest Version)
▫️ What percentage is due to the overall market decline?%
▫️ What percentage is due to uncontrollable black swans?%
▫️ What percentage is due to my poor decisions?%
▫️ What specific lessons did I learn from this mistake?________
Key:
Being honest with yourself is the starting point of cognitive evolution.
This table doesn't need to be shown to anyone, but you must fill it out in your mind.
🛠 Today's Action: Review one of your recent trades
Find a recent trade that left a deep impression on you (profit or loss),
Use the above "Attribution Reconciliation Table" and honestly score yourself.
You will discover:
The money you thought you earned "because you're smart"
May just be the market rewarding you;
The money you thought you lost "because of the market"
May just be your skills not being enough yet.
True growth begins with giving credit back to the market and taking responsibility yourself.
👇 Which time did you mistakenly attribute your profit to "your own brilliance," only to be harshly taught by the market later?
Share your story in the comments, and let’s learn honesty through each other's lessons.