#WhenisBestTimetoEntertheMarket $XAUT ‌Market Structure Analysis (XAUT/USDT)

1. Market Structure

· Daily Timeframe: Price formed a low at 3,977.8 on Jan 31, 2026, and has since rallied to 4,961.1. This move broke above the previous swing high of 4,921.1 (from Jan 10), indicating a potential trend reversal from downtrend to uptrend. Price is currently trading above the 20-period moving average (Bollinger middle at 4,923.6) and above the SAR (4,726.7), confirming bullish bias on the daily. However, the MACD remains bearish (DIF below DEA), suggesting momentum is still building.
· 4-Hour Timeframe: Price is above the middle Bollinger (4,934.0) and SAR (4,870.4), with a bullish MACD crossover (MACD: 9.4, DIF above DEA). This supports an upward move.
· 1-Hour Timeframe (Image 2): Price is below the middle Bollinger (4,968.9) and SAR (5,000.9), with bearish MACD, indicating short-term weakness. This creates a pullback opportunity within the larger uptrend.

2. Break of Structure
The daily break above 4,921.1 is a significant structural break, as it flipped a previous resistance into support. This confirms a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish.

3. Demand Zone
A key demand zone exists between 4,920 and 4,940, confluence of:

· Daily middle Bollinger: 4,923.6
· 4-hour middle Bollinger: 4,934.0
· 24-hour low: 4,935.8
· Previous swing high (now support): 4,921.1
This zone is where buyers are likely to step in.

4. Liquidity Levels

· Upside Liquidity: Above the recent 24h high 5,002.6, then 5,022.0 (4h upper Bollinger) and 5,098.8 (4h swing high).
· Downside Liquidity: Below the 24h low 4,935.8, then 4,921.1 (daily support), 4,846.0 (4h lower Bollinger), and 4,791.3 (4h low).

5. Liquidity Pattern (Sweep + Hunt + Run)
We anticipate a downside liquidity sweep first: price will likely dip below the 24h low (4,935.8) to trigger sell stops, hunting liquidity trapped by late sellers. This false breakdown will then reverse sharply as institutional buyers step in, pushing price higher in a "run" toward upside liquidity. This pattern is common when higher timeframes are bullish but short-term pressure exists.

Trade Setup (Long) with $500 Investment

· Entry: Place a buy limit order at 4,920 (within the demand zone, just below the daily middle to catch the sweep).
· Stop Loss: 4,910 (below the anticipated sweep low and demand zone, allowing for minor wick).
· Take Profit: 5,020 (near the 4h upper Bollinger and a key resistance level).
· Quantity: $500 / 4,920 ≈ 0.1016 XAUT
· Potential Profit: (5,020 – 4,920) × 0.1016 = $10.16
· Potential Loss: (4,920 – 4,910) × 0.1016 = $1.02
· Risk-Reward Ratio: ~10:1

Execution Note: This trade relies on the liquidity sweep occurring. If price reaches 4,920, it implies the sweep has happened, and we enter at a discounted price. Monitor for a reversal candlestick confirmation on lower timeframes (e.g., 15m) after the sweep to increase probability.

Chart Levels:

· Entry: 4,920.0
· Stop: 4,910.0
· Target: 5,020.0
· Demand zone: 4,920–4,940
· Upside liquidity: 5,002.6, 5,022.0
· Downside liquidity: 4,935.8, 4,921.1