Cryptocurrency Market In-Depth Analysis: Key Support Battles Under Macro Pressure

As of February 19, 2026, Bitcoin has retreated to around $66,900, down approximately 0.45% from yesterday. The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes signal a hawkish stance, hinting at possible rate hikes. The market fear and greed index has fallen to 9 (extreme fear). Currently, BTC is testing the critical support level at $65,000; if this level is broken, it could decline further to $60,000. Conversely, if support holds, a technical rebound may be on the horizon. Investors should strictly control positions and monitor macro policy developments.

1. Market Overview

As of February 19, 2026, the overall crypto market remains under pressure. Bitcoin is priced at $66,933, down 0.45% in 24 hours, retreating from yesterday’s close of $67,637. This level approaches the lower boundary of recent trading ranges. Market sentiment indicators show investors are in extreme fear—the fear and greed index has dropped to 9, the lowest in recent months.

On a longer-term view, Bitcoin has been in a sustained correction since reaching a high of $97,000 in mid-January, with a total decline of over 30%. Significant volatility occurred in early February, with a low of $60,074 on February 5, followed by a quick rebound, indicating strong buy support in the $60,000–$65,000 range. However, recent rebounds have weakened, and prices face directional choices again.

Ethereum also declined, with Wrapped ETH at $2,991, roughly unchanged over 24 hours. Altcoins saw more pronounced declines: Solana down 3.42% to $81.77, Ripple down 2.78% to $1.43, reflecting a shift away from high-beta assets amid reduced risk appetite.

2. Macro Drivers Analysis

Fed Policy Shift Expectations Rise

The core trigger for this adjustment is the Fed’s February 18 meeting minutes. The minutes show officials remain cautious about inflation control, hinting that if economic data remains strong, rate hikes could be considered to curb inflation. This hawkish stance directly impacts risk asset pricing—historical data shows that during rate hike cycles, a strengthening dollar often coincides with liquidity tightening in risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Reviewing the Fed’s monetary policy mechanisms you previously focused on in December 2025, the removal of limits on the Standing Repo Facility (SRP) released liquidity, boosting risk assets. The current policy shift indicates liquidity is tightening, contrasting sharply with the easing expectations at that time. Investors need to reassess valuation logic for rate-sensitive assets.

Risk-Off Narrative Faces Challenges

Notably, gold prices have continued rising and hit record highs, while Bitcoin has declined against this backdrop, weakening the "digital gold" narrative as a safe haven. When traditional safe-haven assets diverge from risk assets, it suggests markets are reclassifying cryptocurrencies as high-volatility risk assets rather than stores of value. This shift in perception may continue to suppress institutional allocation in the medium term.

3. Technical Deep Dive

Key Price Levels

Bitcoin is at a critical technical juncture. From a support perspective, $65,000 is a psychological level tested multiple times recently and was the starting point of the February rebound. If this level is broken, next support shifts down to the $60,000 mark, with deeper corrections possibly reaching $55,000. On resistance, the $70,000 level has formed a short-term pressure zone, requiring a volume breakout to confirm a valid rebound.

Momentum Indicators

Technical indicators show a complex picture. The 14-day RSI is around 30, entering oversold territory, suggesting potential for a technical rebound. However, the MACD indicates ongoing bearish momentum, with divergence signals implying downward momentum has not yet fully exhausted. Recent declines have been accompanied by increased volume, consistent with end-of-correction capitulation, but no clear bottoming volume signals are present.

On-Chain Data

Exchange net outflows of Bitcoin are noteworthy. Large whales have been accumulating near $84,000, with daily net outflows reaching 12,000 BTC, indicating long-term holders are still buying on dips. Such on-chain behavior diverging from price action is often seen as a mid-term bottom signal, but macro deterioration risks could invalidate this pattern.

4. Strategic Recommendations

Spot Investors

For long-term allocation funds, current levels are suitable for phased building. A pyramid strategy is recommended: initiate tentative positions in the $66,000–$65,000 range (about 20% of total capital). If prices fall to $60,000, increase positions to 40%. In extreme cases, if it reaches $55,000, raise to 60%. Keep 40% cash for deeper corrections or trend reversals.

This approach is based on macro cycle judgment. If the Fed clearly enters a rate hike cycle, reevaluate crypto’s role in your portfolio and adjust target prices downward accordingly.

Derivatives Traders

Short-term derivatives trading should strictly follow trend-following principles. Given the current bearish trend, shorting on rebounds is preferable to contrarian buying. Specifically, consider short positions when prices rebound to resistance zones at $68,000–$69,000, with stop-loss at $70,500, targeting $65,000 and $62,000. If prices break below $65,000 support, consider small short positions with stops at $66,500, targeting $60,000.

Be especially cautious: when the fear index is at extreme lows, markets can reverse V-shaped. Use trailing stops to protect profits after gains. Leverage should be limited to 3x or less to avoid liquidation in extreme volatility.

Asset Allocation Advice

Based on your previous asset allocation framework, maintain a baseline of 30–40% in gold as a risk anchor. Crypto holdings should not exceed 20% of total assets, prioritizing main assets like BTC and ETH, avoiding high-volatility altcoins. Once macro conditions clarify and a clear bottom structure emerges, gradually increase crypto allocations.

5. Risks and Outlook

In the short term, markets face three major uncertainties: Fed policy trajectory, geopolitical developments, and crypto regulation dynamics. Any deterioration could trigger another wave of sell-offs. Investors should maintain ample liquidity, avoid leverage, and strictly control individual trade risks.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the underlying value of blockchain technology remains intact. As infrastructure like Lightning Network and smart contracts continues to improve, and institutional adoption steadily increases, crypto assets still have structural growth potential. The current correction can be viewed as a normal pullback within a bull cycle, not a trend end—provided macro risks do not escalate systemically.

Key Indicators to Watch: Changes in Fed officials’ rhetoric, USD index trends, the effectiveness of $65,000 support, ETF fund flows. Daily monitoring and flexible strategy adjustments are recommended.

Disclaimer: This analysis is based on publicly available information and is for reference only. It does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile; invest cautiously and make independent decisions based on your risk tolerance.