ETH Volatility Storm: Whale Rebalancing and Technical Overselling Trigger Market Turmoil

📈 Event Review

During a trading session on February 15th, ETH experienced intense volatility. The market rapidly shifted from a high to a low within a short period, followed by some rebound. Initially, ETH price plummeted from around $2,060 to $2,017, then continued to decline to $2,009, before finally rebounding to approximately $2,024.49 at 21:24. Meanwhile, some large institutional and whale funds were active, with notable whale address 0x28eF withdrawing about 7,301 ETH from exchanges within the past 8 hours, amounting to roughly $15.14 million. This series of events sparked widespread discussion about risk exposure adjustments and profit-taking, while also intensifying liquidity tightening pressures.

⏰ Timeline

20:45: ETH price triggered a sharp drop, falling from about $2,060 to $2,017 within 11 minutes, a decline of 2.10%.

20:49: Key large fund activity appeared, with whale address 0x28eF withdrawing 7,301 ETH (about $15.14 million) from exchanges, suspected to be risk adjustment or profit-taking.

21:00: ETH price further declined, dropping from $2,017 to $2,009, a total decrease of approximately 0.39%.

21:24: The market saw some rebound, with ETH rising back to about $2,024.49, and the trend temporarily stabilized.

🔍 Cause Analysis

The intense volatility was mainly driven by two factors:

Funding Movements Recent frequent rebalancing by institutions and whales, exemplified by the large ETH withdrawal by whale address 0x28eF. Such actions are often interpreted by the market as profit-taking or risk reduction, leading to rapid liquidity withdrawal and exacerbating downward pressure.

Macroeconomic and Regulatory Uncertainty Recent US employment and CPI data, along with ongoing international discussions on crypto regulation, have lowered overall market risk appetite. Under this environment, investors have become more cautious, further fueling sharp price swings.

📊 Technical Analysis

Based on the 45-minute K-line chart of Binance USDT perpetual contracts, for ETH/USDT trading pair, the current technical picture shows:

Clear Oversold Signals

RSI has fallen below 30, indicating the market has entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.

Price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, and the %B indicator has fallen below 0.0, indicating the price is at an extreme low.

Indicators Show Panic Selling

KDJ indicator is in oversold territory and converging, hinting that selling pressure may ease in the short term.

OBV indicates increasing selling volume, further confirming outflows of funds.

Trading volume surged nearly 480%, accompanying the price decline, forming a strong panic sell signal. Although some moving averages suggest a short-term rebound possibility, the overall bearish alignment remains evident.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

Price remains below MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50, all in a bearish arrangement, confirming a downtrend.

MACD histogram continues to shrink, indicating increasing downward momentum.

In summary, the 45-minute technical chart shows potential for a short-term rebound due to oversold conditions, but overall, the market still faces significant downside risk in the near term.

🔮 Market Outlook

In the short term, since technical indicators show oversold conditions, a gradual recovery in buying interest could trigger a brief rebound. However, considering recent large fund rebalancing, liquidity tightening, and macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, investors should remain highly cautious.

In the medium to long term, if macroeconomic conditions or crypto regulation improve positively, risk appetite may recover, and ETH could stabilize and rebound. But given the current environment, intense volatility remains the main theme. It is advisable for investors to closely monitor institutional movements and key technical indicators, allocate positions prudently, and guard against potential risks.

Overall, ETH in this oscillation has shown signs that overselling may trigger a rebound, but also revealed concerns about excessive risk exposure. Only once market sentiment fully turns positive and liquidity recovers should cautious observation and gradual position adjustment be considered the more prudent strategy.