How do macro mid-week data and geopolitical factors transmit to BTC?

This week's macro events are intense: Non-farm Payrolls, CPI, US-Iran negotiations, Japanese elections. Many people think these are far from crypto, but the impact pathway is quite clear—through USD liquidity and risk appetite transmission.
If CPI unexpectedly rises, easing expectations for rate cuts, the dollar strengthens, and risk assets are usually under pressure, making it hard for BTC to be immune. Conversely, slowing inflation is positive for risk assets.
The impact of non-farm data is similar: strong employment → hawkish policy bias → liquidity tightening; weak employment → easing expectations rise → risk assets benefit.
Geopolitical factors more often influence risk sentiment. During extreme tensions, gold remains a priority over BTC, but the narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” is strengthening, leading some funds to shift.
The impact of the Japanese elections is more reflected in yen movements and carry trade. If yen volatility increases, global risk appetite will also be affected.
The core of proactive positioning is not predicting outcomes but setting predefined scripts: how to act when positive news comes, how to respond to negative news. Write responses into your plan, not into your emotions.
What the market fears most is not data itself, but uncertainty.