As of February 4, 2026, the cryptocurrency market is likely to see a short-term 1-2 week period of strong selling pressure clearing out, a mid-term 2-3 month consolidation phase, and a long-term outlook that depends on macroeconomic and regulatory key variables. Below are the key judgments and timeline:

1. Time Cycles and Core Judgments

- Short-term (1-2 weeks): Concentrated release of negative news, deleveraging, and digestion of panic sentiment. Likely to fluctuate and test support around $73,000-$76,000; if ETF outflows persist or geopolitical risks remain unresolved, further testing of $70,000 support may occur.
- Mid-term (2-3 months): Post-Lunar New Year, Asian capital flows back into the market, and bottom-fishing funds enter, gradually weakening negative sentiment. Expect a rebound to the $80,000-$85,000 range; if the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations are restored, the rebound could be stronger.
- Long-term (4-12 months): The continuation of negative sentiment depends on two major variables—Federal Reserve policies (if rate cut expectations are delayed, negative sentiment may extend into Q2) and the pace of regulatory implementation (clarity on compliance rules will reduce negative pressure).

2. Key Variables Affecting the Duration of Negative Sentiment

1. Macroeconomic Liquidity: The core is the Federal Reserve’s rate cut expectations. If inflation data remains stubborn and high interest rates suppress risk assets, negative sentiment may extend by 1-2 quarters.
2. Capital Flows: Whether ETF funds stop declining and flow back, and whether Asian funds return after the holiday, will be clear by mid to late February.
3. Regulatory Developments: US SEC stablecoin investigations, EU MiCA compliance adjustments—if stricter policies are introduced, negative sentiment may persist.
4. Market Structure: After deleveraging from high leverage, low-leverage, high-margin models will suppress volatility. Structural repair is expected to complete between February and March.

3. Duration Evolution Under Different Scenarios

- Baseline Scenario (high probability): 1-2 weeks of selling pressure clearing out, followed by a rebound in volatility and recovery in March, with negative sentiment fading after April as macro conditions improve.
- Pessimistic Scenario (medium probability): Continued macro tightening and increased regulation, with negative sentiment extending into Q2, leading to a low-volatility consolidation phase.
- Optimistic Scenario (medium probability): Selling pressure clears by the end of February, capital flows back, and a rapid rebound occurs, with negative sentiment ending early.

4. Trading and Risk Management Recommendations

- In the short term, strictly control leverage, monitor key support levels at $70,000, $73,000, and $76,000; if broken, further reduce positions to hedge risks.
- In the mid-term (2-3 months), deploy funds gradually, prioritizing mainstream coins and compliant sectors, avoiding high-leverage altcoins and MEME tokens.
- In the long-term, closely follow Federal Reserve policy meetings, ETF capital flows, and regulatory details, adjusting long and short strategies promptly.