Kevin Woorosh's appointment as Federal Reserve Chair implies that the Fed is likely to maintain the "Higher for Longer" dollar milkshake policy. This means the Fed will not rush into QE and YCC, maintaining a relatively strong dollar to avoid inflation (hyperinflation must not erupt before the mid-term elections, as the Democrats are losing due to inflation!). This is the reason for the recent simultaneous decline in safe-haven and risk assets. This scene will continue until signals of a crisis appear, at which point the Fed will have an excuse to bail out the market, implementing QE, YCC, or covert easing measures, while also coordinating with the Treasury to monetize debt. Therefore, I speculate that 2026 will likely be a period of a relatively strong dollar, with risk assets and safe-haven assets declining together; a crisis is expected in mid-year (end of Q1 to Q2), providing the Fed with a reason to intervene, which will be the best buying opportunity. Note: A financial market crisis may be a short-term boon for most voters in terms of inflation contraction, as risk asset prices and inflation have a short-term trade-off. Voters can tolerate a decline in the Nasdaq index but cannot tolerate rising prices of eggs and milk.
View Original
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
Kevin Woorosh's appointment as Federal Reserve Chair implies that the Fed is likely to maintain the "Higher for Longer" dollar milkshake policy. This means the Fed will not rush into QE and YCC, maintaining a relatively strong dollar to avoid inflation (hyperinflation must not erupt before the mid-term elections, as the Democrats are losing due to inflation!). This is the reason for the recent simultaneous decline in safe-haven and risk assets. This scene will continue until signals of a crisis appear, at which point the Fed will have an excuse to bail out the market, implementing QE, YCC, or covert easing measures, while also coordinating with the Treasury to monetize debt. Therefore, I speculate that 2026 will likely be a period of a relatively strong dollar, with risk assets and safe-haven assets declining together; a crisis is expected in mid-year (end of Q1 to Q2), providing the Fed with a reason to intervene, which will be the best buying opportunity. Note: A financial market crisis may be a short-term boon for most voters in terms of inflation contraction, as risk asset prices and inflation have a short-term trade-off. Voters can tolerate a decline in the Nasdaq index but cannot tolerate rising prices of eggs and milk.