Willie Woo, analyst, is optimistic about a short-term rebound in Bitcoin... but pessimistic about the possibility of a bear market in 2026

Cryptocurrency market analyst Willy Woo has expressed conflicting views on the future direction of Bitcoin. As the latest BTC price records around $90.06K, he remains optimistic about a short-term rebound from late January to February but maintains a pessimistic outlook from a broader market cycle perspective.

Positive signals for short-term rebound, technical indicators recovering

Willy Woo recently analyzed market trends and presented a positive scenario. According to his internal fund flow model, Bitcoin has been steadily rising since forming a bottom on December 24, and it typically takes 2-3 weeks for these fund movements to be fully reflected in the price. The process is currently underway.

Another noteworthy factor is the vigor in the futures market. Liquidity has been recovering after months of stagnation, resembling the pattern seen during the mid-2021 cycle peak. However, the technical overbought condition could act as a short-term constraint.

Resistance at $98,000–$100,000, breaking through is key

The immediate market focus is on the resistance level around $98,000–$100,000. Willy Woo emphasized that this level must hold. If this resistance is broken, Bitcoin is expected to move toward its all-time high (ATH) of $126.08K.

Liquidity weakening and the pessimistic outlook for 2026

However, the long-term outlook is entirely different. Willy Woo’s pessimism about 2026 stems from deteriorating liquidity. Although the price has continued to rise since January 2025, the actual inflow of funds supporting this trend appears to be waning.

The current market has entered the final stage of the bullish cycle, and there is insufficient spot liquidity to sustain the upward trend. His pessimistic outlook can only change if a large amount of long-term capital flows in to break the downward trend.

Signs confirming a bear market, ongoing fund outflows to watch

Willy Woo emphasized that a bear market has not yet been confirmed. A transition to a bear market will only be confirmed when continuous fund outflows from Bitcoin are observed, which is a lagging indicator following the cycle peak. Therefore, closely monitoring changes in fund flows will be key to identifying market turning points.