Four Tech Billionaires on the All-In Podcast Reveal 2026's Boldest Investment Bets: Why Copper Outperforms Oil and How Crypto Will Replace Gold

In a recent All-In Podcast episode, four prominent venture capitalists and technology entrepreneurs—Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks—unpacked their contrarian investment theses and political forecasts for 2026. With a combined net worth exceeding $50 billion and influence spanning from Silicon Valley’s earliest deals to today’s geopolitical calculations, these four offer a masterclass in spotting emerging trends. Their predictions paint a vivid picture of commodity supercycles, the resurrection of the IPO market, and a fundamental reshaping of how central banks think about digital assets.

The California Exodus: How $500 Billion in Wealth Hangs in the Balance

The episode opened with an urgent discussion on California’s proposed wealth tax—a 5% annual levy on assets exceeding $50 million that threatens to trigger the largest capital flight in state history. According to the discussion, if the measure makes the ballot in April 2026, it could force out nearly half of California’s projected taxable wealth. David Sacks, who recently relocated his operations to Austin, emphasized that the panic alone would drive departures, regardless of whether the tax ultimately passes. Chamath Palihapitiya acknowledged he was “hedging his bets,” noting that friends with a combined $500 billion in net worth had already exited. The true damage, they suggest, lies in the wealth tax’s design: entrepreneurs holding illiquid startup equity would face devastating consequences, potentially paying 5% of stock value annually, which could bankrupt their companies. For founders like Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the measure’s “super voting rights” clause effectively transforms a 5% tax into a 25% or even 50% tax. The group’s consensus: even if the vote fails, California’s economic decline has begun.

Copper as the New Oil: A 70% Global Supply Deficit by 2040

Among the group’s most bullish calls for 2026 is Chamath’s pick: copper. He argues that in a world increasingly focused on national economic resilience and unilateralism, copper represents the most underestimated commodity opportunity. It’s the cheapest, most conductive, most ductile material in existence—essential for data centers, semiconductor manufacturing, weapons systems, and the entire electrification infrastructure. At current consumption rates, the global copper supply deficit will reach approximately 70% by 2040. This structural shortage, combined with geopolitical fragmentation and supply chain reshoring, creates what the group views as an unstoppable bull case. Unlike speculative plays, copper is a proxy bet on the fundamental infrastructure of the 21st century.

Why This Is the Year the IPO Market Roars Back

David Sacks predicts 2026 will mark a historic reversal of a decade-long trend: companies will flood back to public markets. After years of companies opting to stay private longer, burn venture capital, and delay exits, the “Trump Boom” economic backdrop—marked by deregulation, M&A optimism, and rising corporate confidence—will trigger trillions of dollars in new market capitalization. This IPO renaissance aligns with Jason Calacanis’s bullish call on Amazon as the first “corporate singularity”—a company where robots will generate more profit than humans. Amazon’s Zoox autonomous vehicle division, combined with its same-day delivery logistics powered by massive warehouse automation, exemplifies how automation isn’t destroying companies; it’s creating unprecedented profit engines. Meanwhile, David Friedberg backs Polymarket, the prediction market platform that’s evolving from a niche speculation tool into a legitimate news and intelligence service rivaling traditional media.

Prediction Markets Replace Traditional Media; Crypto Enters a New Phase

Friedberg’s contrarian bet on Polymarket reflects a broader theme: as central banks and governments lose faith in traditional institutions, decentralized platforms gain legitimacy. Yet the most provocative crypto prediction comes from Chamath: central banks, recognizing gold and Bitcoin’s limitations for state purposes, will seek a “new, controlled crypto paradigm.” They need a tradable, secure, completely private asset resistant to espionage—and critically, one that can withstand quantum computing threats emerging over the next 5-10 years. This sovereign-controlled digital asset won’t replace Bitcoin; it will coexist, creating a two-tier system where state-backed crypto handles monetary policy while decentralized assets serve as alternative stores of value. This signals that cryptocurrency enters 2026 not as a fringe asset class, but as a strategic tool reshaping global financial architecture.

The GDP Growth Paradox: Can America Hit 6% Without Inflation?

The group’s economic forecasts are strikingly bullish. Chamath predicts GDP growth between 5% and 6.2%—a range that would make the US competitive only with China’s centrally coordinated economy. Sacks points to real data: inflation has fallen to 2.7%, core CPI sits at 2.6%, Q3 GDP already grew 4.3%, and the trade deficit has shrunk to its lowest level since 2009. The Atlanta Fed recently raised its fourth-quarter forecast to 5.4%. Several factors align: non-farm payroll data resets have revealed rapid income growth for low-income groups, AI productivity gains are materializing, and tax reductions take effect in 2026. Friedberg, more conservative, predicts 4.6%, but even this represents robust growth. The critical insight: according to Sacks, who cites the Jevons paradox, AI won’t decrease demand for knowledge workers—it will increase it, as lower coding costs and faster analysis drive more software creation and interpretation needs.

The Losers: Oil Crashes, SaaS Stalls, and California Becomes Uninvestable

If copper is the winner, oil is the loser. Chamath predicts crude will fall toward $45 per barrel, not $65, as electrification and energy storage inexorably shrink oil’s use cases. This isn’t a climate argument; it’s structural economics. Friedberg sees Netflix and traditional media facing extinction as independent creators and citizen journalism bypass legacy gatekeepers. Meanwhile, enterprise SaaS faces a profitability crisis: companies built on “maintenance” and “migration” revenue—representing $3-4 trillion annually—will see that revenue vanish as AI reduces both costs and need for incremental software. Calacanis warns that young US white-collar workers face the harshest AI displacement, not because of intentional job elimination, but because companies find it easier to automate entry-level tasks than train recent graduates.

The Geopolitical Wildcard: Iran’s Fall Won’t Stabilize the Middle East

David Friedberg’s boldest contrarian bet: Iran’s regime will fall in 2026, but contrary to popular belief, this destabilizes rather than stabilizes the Middle East. While many view Iran as a destabilizing force, Friedberg argues it plays a stabilizing role—a counterweight balancing Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Once this regime collapses, Arab states will clash for regional dominance, especially following the two-state Palestine solution. Meanwhile, David Sacks predicts the US-China standoff will ease considerably under Trump’s second term, potentially marking a historic thaw in superpower relations.

Chamath’s Boldest Bet: SpaceX Merges Into Tesla, Not the Opposite

Perhaps the episode’s most headline-grabbing prediction: SpaceX won’t IPO; instead, it will merge into Tesla. Chamath believes Elon Musk will consolidate his two most valuable assets into a single shareholding structure to cement control. This would create a combined entity spanning electric vehicles, energy storage, space exploration, and artificial intelligence—effectively a “mega-tech” conglomerate unprecedented in scope. Coupled with the central bank crypto paradigm shift, this suggests 2026 marks the moment when mega-wealth concentration and financial innovation accelerate simultaneously.

The Political Realignment: DSA Rises, Centrists Fall, Tech Faces a Reckoning

The group agrees on one political inevitability: Democratic Socialism of America (DSA) will solidify control over the Democratic Party by 2026, just as MAGA reshaped Republicans. Sacks predicts the “Trump Boom” becomes the political winner, while Chamath bets on politicians fighting government waste. Friedberg points to Iran’s democratization as the year’s most significant geopolitical event. But all four warn that the tech industry itself faces a populist backlash from both left and right. Republicans remain angry over past censorship and deplatforming; progressives view tech wealth as illegitimate concentration. Friedberg predicts the 2026 midterms become a referendum on Big Tech’s values. Sacks calls for “truth and reconciliation” between tech leaders and conservatives—suggesting the Silicon Valley-Republican alliance, currently strained, must be rebuilt.

The Speculative Boom: Robinhood, Coinbase, and Prediction Markets as Mainstream

When cash is flush and interest rates fall, retail investors return to speculation. Jason Calacanis bets that speculative platforms—Robinhood, Polymarket, PrizePicks, and Coinbase—will surge as middle-class Americans with spare capital seek outsized returns. This, combined with Friedberg’s Polymarket call and Sacks’s technology supercycle thesis, suggests 2026 becomes a year where traditional financial gatekeeping collapses further and decentralized or democratized platforms capture mainstream attention.

The All-In Podcast’s collective forecast: 2026 is the year of geopolitical realignment, commodity-driven growth, crypto’s institutional legitimacy, and the final nail in the coffin of California’s dominance as a business hub. Whether measured in copper prices, IPO filings, GDP growth, or political upheaval, the year ahead promises to be historic.