Latest forecast market signals: BlackRock CIO becomes the hottest candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, how should the crypto market position itself?

Reid’s chances of being nominated on the prediction platform Polymarket have skyrocketed from 3% ten days ago to 58%, making him the top contender. In contrast, the previously leading former Federal Reserve Board member Wacht’s win rate has fallen to 25%-45%. As the head of fixed income investments at the world’s largest asset management firm BlackRock, Reid has never worked within the Federal Reserve system. This outsider status is viewed by the Trump team as a key advantage in pushing for reform of the Fed.

Power Transition

The handover of the Federal Reserve Chairmanship is entering its countdown. The current Chair Powell’s term will end in May 2026, and who will succeed him has become the most watched macro event in global financial markets.

U.S. President Trump has completed interviews with candidates, hinting that the final shortlist has been reduced from an initial 11 to “someone already in mind.” This selection process not only concerns the future direction of U.S. monetary policy in the coming years but also directly impacts global capital flows and risk asset prices.

Prediction Market Signals

Prediction markets are sending strong signals. On multiple prediction platforms, BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder’s win probability is exploding.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, Rieder’s probability of being nominated has risen to 58%, making him the most likely candidate. On another prediction platform, Kalshi, his win rate has also reached 60%. This contrasts sharply with ten days ago, when Rieder’s market probability was only 3%. Meanwhile, the previously leading former Fed Board member Kevin Wacht’s win rate has fallen from a high to 25%-45%.

Candidate Landscape

Trump’s list of candidates has been narrowed down to the final few contenders. Currently, there are four main candidates: BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, former Fed Board member Kevin Wacht, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset, and current Fed Board member Chris Waller.

Among them, Rieder and Wacht are clear frontrunners. Hasset, although initially seen as a hot candidate, saw his chances drop sharply to 8% after Trump expressed a desire for him to remain in his current position. In terms of background, Rieder and Wacht represent two different policy directions. Rieder, a seasoned Wall Street “bond king,” is seen as more aligned with market realities; Wacht, with experience working within the Fed system, is viewed as a more traditional choice.

Rieder’s Advantages

Rieder’s favorability is no accident. The 63-year-old BlackRock executive has been with the company since 2009, managing approximately $2.4 trillion in bond strategies, making him one of Wall Street’s most influential fixed income experts.

Unlike other candidates, Rieder has never worked within the Fed system. This outsider status is seen by the Trump team as a major advantage. They believe Rieder would be less constrained by Fed bureaucracy, aiding efforts to reform the system. Rieder’s views on monetary policy also align closely with Trump’s goals. He considers the current interest rate level of 3.5%-3.75% “still too high” and advocates for the federal funds rate to be lowered to around 3%. This stance is consistent with Trump’s desire for significant rate cuts.

Potential Impact on Crypto Markets

The change in Fed leadership could have profound effects on the crypto markets. Different candidates imply different policy paths, which directly influence market liquidity and risk appetite.

Market analysis suggests that if Rieder is elected (viewed as more market-friendly), crypto market liquidity could increase by 10%-18%, with Bitcoin potentially rebounding by 8%-18%. Conversely, if Wacht is elected (perceived as more hawkish), crypto liquidity might decrease by 8%-15%, with Bitcoin facing a 6%-14% decline risk.

This uncertainty has already begun to influence trading behavior. Due to the unclear future policy direction of the Fed, Bitcoin trading volume has decreased by 6% week-over-week, and institutional crypto fund flows have reduced by 4%.

Latest Crypto Market Dynamics

According to Gate data, as of January 27, 2026, the crypto market shows a steady recovery trend. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently priced at $88,662, up 0.99% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap of $1.76 trillion, accounting for 56.49% of the market share. Ethereum (ETH) performs even stronger, with a current price of $2,939.25, a 24-hour increase of 2.17%, and a market cap of $351.54 billion.

Some market analysts remain optimistic about the crypto outlook. Fundstrat research head Tom Lee predicts Ethereum could rise to $7,000 - $9,000 by early 2026, with long-term potential reaching $20,000. Analyst Bernstein is even more bullish, expecting Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026, with a peak possibly hitting $200,000 in 2027.

Policy Cycle Transformation

The leadership change at the Fed coincides with a critical point in the crypto market cycle. Industry insiders believe that U.S. pro-crypto policies could break the traditional four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin’s market follows a four-year cycle related to “halving” events, which often produce all-time highs followed by significant price corrections. However, with the U.S. policy environment becoming more supportive of cryptocurrencies, 2026 may mark an exception to this traditional pattern.

Regardless of who ultimately becomes the next Fed Chair, Trump has made it clear he hopes to see interest rates further lowered. If this goal is achieved, the crypto market could be among the first to feel the effects.

Trump officials have indicated that the final nominee could be announced as early as next week. Regardless of the outcome, the nerves of the global financial markets are already being affected. When asked about his preferred candidate, Rieder remains cautious, emphasizing that the Fed Chair should have “independence” and be responsible to the nation and the people. Meanwhile, on the crypto market ticker, numbers continue to jump, with every trade pricing in future uncertainties. In Wall Street analyst models, the Fed meeting room chair isn’t yet occupied, but Bitcoin’s code has already run hundreds of thousands of block confirmations—trust mechanisms from two entirely different systems waiting at the same moment for the birth of the same decision-maker.