MicroStrategy's latest Bitcoin purchase: a sign of firm conviction or a warning signal?

On January 26th, local time, MicroStrategy announced the repurchase of $264 million worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $90,061 per BTC. This increased the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 712,647 BTC, with an average cost of $76,037.

However, behind this seemingly steadfast belief in Bitcoin, data reveals a concerning structural change—the funds used for this purchase were almost entirely raised from newly issued stock rather than corporate profits, and the company’s key valuation metric, mNAV, has fallen to 0.94x, indicating that the stock trading price is below its Bitcoin reserve net value.

Purchase Details and Funding Structure

MicroStrategy’s latest Bitcoin acquisition was completed between January 20 and 25, marking the fourth Bitcoin purchase this month. Compared to earlier practices of buying Bitcoin with corporate profits or cash reserves, this time the funding structure has undergone a fundamental change.

The company raised $257 million by selling 1,569,770 common shares, and an additional $7 million by issuing 70,201 shares of STRC preferred stock. The total financing of approximately $264 million nearly fully covered the cost of the Bitcoin purchase. This financing model reflects the current dilemma faced by MicroStrategy—since Bitcoin prices reached around $125,000 in Q4 2025, market sentiment has shifted. The positive cycle of “rising stock price—issuing shares—buying Bitcoin—stock price rising again” is breaking down.

mNAV Falls Below Critical Level

With recent Bitcoin price fluctuations and market skepticism about MicroStrategy’s model, the company’s key valuation metric, mNAV (market multiple of net assets), has entered a dangerous zone.

As of January 26, 2026, MicroStrategy’s diluted mNAV is approximately 0.94x, meaning the stock is trading at a 6% discount below its Bitcoin reserve net value. More critically, from January 5 to January 26, the company’s diluted shares increased by 5.36%, while Bitcoin holdings increased by only 5.77%. This nearly flat growth rate indicates that the newly issued shares no longer significantly increase shareholders’ Bitcoin holdings. The earlier strategy of issuing shares at a premium to buy Bitcoin has significantly weakened.

From Core Index to Marginal Edge

For MicroStrategy, a more severe structural challenge comes from rejection by traditional financial systems. The company faces the risk of being delisted from MSCI’s major stock indices.

According to a report by JPMorgan, if MicroStrategy is removed from MSCI indices, it could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in outflows; if other index providers follow suit, the outflows could reach up to $8.8 billion. This amounts to nearly 15% of the company’s current market capitalization, which would be catastrophic for its stock price.

On January 15, 2026, MSCI officially removed MicroStrategy from all major indices. This is not just a technical adjustment but a fundamental market skepticism of MicroStrategy’s business model. When a company’s crypto assets account for over 50% of its total assets, it is regarded by index providers as a crypto fund rather than a traditional enterprise. Currently, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin assets account for as much as 77% of its total assets.

Structural Risks of the Business Model

MicroStrategy’s business model faces unprecedented structural risks. Over the past 19 months, the company has raised approximately $18.56 billion through issuing about 226.6 million shares of common stock. The latest purchase continues this trend, further diluting existing shareholders’ equity amid weak market conditions.

Meanwhile, reliance on preferred stock is increasing, which has fixed dividend requirements and priority over common stock in repayment. While preferred stock can sustain Bitcoin purchasing capacity during stock weakness, it also increases long-term obligations and complicates the balance sheet. More concerning is that MicroStrategy has shifted from a “buy-and-hold forever” strategy to a “willing to sell in certain circumstances.” The company states that if its mNAV falls below 1 and it needs to sell Bitcoin to meet creditor obligations, it will consider doing so.

Potential Impact on the Bitcoin Market

As the largest corporate Bitcoin holder globally, MicroStrategy’s strategy sustainability has a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. Historically, this company’s Bitcoin holdings have represented a substantial proportion of the total circulating supply, and any major change could trigger market volatility.

According to Gate data, as of January 26, 2026, Bitcoin price is $88,641.9, with a market cap of $1.76 trillion, and a market share of 56.49%. It has increased by 0.9% in the past 24 hours but decreased by 4.85% over the past 7 days. Market sentiment is assessed as neutral.

Based on Gate data, the average Bitcoin price in 2026 is projected to be $88,432.3, with potential fluctuations between a low of $84,010.68 and a high of $91,969.59. By 2031, the price could reach $211,213, representing a potential return of +62.00% compared to today.

Dependence on Capital Markets and Future Outlook

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy has become a fully capital-market-dependent model. The company continues to raise funds through stock issuance to buy Bitcoin, but when the stock trading price is below the value of its Bitcoin reserves, such issuance effectively dilutes rather than increases shareholder value.

Market data shows that the premium of MicroStrategy stock has fallen from a peak of 2.5x to near net asset value. Once regarded by investors as a “Bitcoin leverage tool,” MicroStrategy is now seen merely as an alternative to Bitcoin. With the advent of Bitcoin spot ETFs, investors now have more direct and cost-effective channels to invest in Bitcoin without relying on complex intermediaries like MicroStrategy. This further diminishes the relevance of MicroStrategy’s business model.

On January 15, MSCI officially delisted MicroStrategy from all major indices, and passive index tracking funds are withdrawing from this company. The stock price has plummeted 66% since its peak in July 2024, while its key metric, mNAV, remains around 1.02, approaching the critical point. As each dollar flows into Bitcoin ETFs, MicroStrategy is becoming a “closed Bitcoin fund.” Its founder, Michael Saylor, once tamed the crypto market’s polar bears, but now Wall Street algorithms are rewriting the game rules without emotion.