This week in the crypto world is a super data week! The Federal Reserve + Bank of Japan double impact, has the market reached a turning point?

Global financial markets are entering a "policy-sensitive window period," and four major events this Thursday will send a "series of shockwaves" to the cryptocurrency market nerves. Among them, the FOMC interest rate decision and the Bank of Japan's December monetary policy meeting minutes form the core variables, combined with key employment and inflation data, directly determining the short-term trend direction of mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, making it the first "Market Anchor Week" of 2026.
🔥 Four major red alert events: each could rewrite the market
1. Bank of Japan December monetary policy meeting minutes (Tuesday) — The "invisible switch" of global liquidity
As a key indicator of non-US monetary policy, the signals from this meeting's minutes are far beyond the norm. From the disclosed core viewpoints, the Japanese economy has shown signs of moderate recovery, corporate fixed investment continues to expand due to labor shortages, and in 2026, large corporate wage increases are likely to stay flat or exceed 2025, with core CPI inflation still on a gentle upward trend. More importantly, the market generally interprets the current BOJ policy tone as "paving the way for normalization," with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield rising to 1.12%, and the global risk-free rate center being passively lifted.
- Market impact logic: Bitcoin's correlation with the yen is currently as high as 0.84. If the minutes clearly signal a tendency to raise interest rates or tighten liquidity, a strengthening yen will divert safe-haven funds from the crypto market, potentially weakening BTC support at the $90,000 level, facing a short-term correction of 1.5%-3%; if the "gradual easing" statement is maintained, the yen depreciation expectation will continue, liquidity in risk assets will be replenished, and mainstream coins may see a weak rebound.
2. Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision + Powell press conference (Wednesday 03:00) — The absolute key turning point this week
Market expectations for interest rates to remain unchanged have reached 95%, with the real focus on Powell's policy statements and the March rate cut guidance. Currently, the Fed shows a "cautious dovish" split: Vice Chair Jefferson emphasizes "policy is in a favorable position," with no need for hasty action; meanwhile, markets worry that the Trump administration might nominate a new chair inclined towards easing, raising doubts about policy independence. More importantly, the 2026 dot plot shows only one 25 basis point rate cut planned, far below market expectations of a more easing cycle.
- Market impact logic:
- If Powell hints that "March is suitable for a rate cut," the dollar index is likely to break below the 103 key support, funds will shift from USD assets to risk markets, and BTC, ETH could start a wave of rally, with optimistic scenarios pushing BTC to the $95,000-$98,000 range (institutions forecast a full-year target of $170,000 in a loose cycle);
- If he emphasizes "inflation remains sticky, more data needed before cutting," it will reinforce the expectation of "higher interest rates lasting longer," and the dollar rebound will suppress crypto valuations, with mainstream coins possibly retracing to the $85,000-$88,000 range, high-leverage positions should beware of forced liquidation risks;
- Under neutral statements, the market will turn to subsequent economic data for guidance, and the trend may enter a narrow range with volatility dropping to recent lows.
3. US initial jobless claims until January 24 (Thursday 21:30) — The "touchstone" for rate cut expectations
Employment data is a core reference for Fed policy adjustments. Last week, initial jobless claims were 200,000, below the expected 210,000, indicating the labor market remains robust. As a lagging indicator, if this data shows unexpected volatility, it will directly alter the probability of a March rate cut.
- Market impact logic: If the data exceeds 220,000 (more weakness than expected), the market pricing for a March rate cut will rise from 35% to over 50%, risk appetite will increase, benefiting cryptocurrencies; if below 195,000 (strong employment), the rate cut expectation will cool, causing short-term selling pressure, and mainstream coins may see a quick 1%-2% correction.
4. US December PPI annual rate (Friday 21:30) — The "forward signal" of inflation transmission
PPI, as a leading indicator of CPI, directly reflects upstream price pressures. Currently, US core PCE inflation is stable at 2.8%, near the Fed's target zone. If PPI rebounds, it may trigger market concerns about a "second inflation surge."
- Market impact logic: PPI falling unexpectedly below 2.5% will solidify the deflationary logic, further strengthening easing expectations, and the crypto market may continue to rise; if PPI rises above 3% YoY, inflation stickiness concerns will suppress risk assets, with BTC testing the $88,000 support level or even triggering technical breakdowns.
Summary: The "life-and-death week" dominated by news, with clear operational logic
The core contradiction in the crypto market this week is the resonance between "Fed policy expectation adjustments" and "marginal changes in global liquidity," with a high probability of the trend showing a "reaction to the Bank of Japan first, then focusing on the Fed, and finally verifying economic data." For investors:
1. Avoid blindly chasing highs; current BTC valuation near $90,000 has partly priced in easing expectations, and hawkish Fed statements may trigger a "expectation gap correction";
2. Set stop-loss at key levels: long positions at $85,000, short positions at $92,000, to avoid gaps caused by news;
3. Pay attention to asset correlation signals: dollar index 103, Japanese bond yield 1.15%, S&P 500 at 5200 points—breakthrough directions of these three indicators will guide crypto market trends simultaneously.
Every major event this week could be the fuse for a market "turnaround," especially the Wednesday Fed decision, which will directly set the tone for February—whether to surge to new highs or correct and consolidate. The answer is about to be revealed. Stay alert throughout, respond rationally to volatility! $BTC $ETH