Bitcoin faces sell-off: ETF fund outflows trigger price correction, what is the outlook for the future?

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has experienced another wave of volatility. According to Gate market data, as of January 26, 2026, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased by approximately 6.21% over the past week, trading at $87,692.4. This correction coincides with the ongoing outflow of funds from the US Bitcoin spot ETF observed in the market, raising concerns among investors about short-term risks. This article will analyze the reasons behind this round of Bitcoin price decline using the latest market data and provide a neutral discussion on BTC’s future trend based on professional market information from Gate.

Market Focus: ETF Fund Outflows and Geopolitical Dual Pressures

Since January 2026, Bitcoin’s price has failed to sustain the positive momentum seen earlier in the year. According to publicly available market fund flow data, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced continuous net outflows this week, totaling over $1.3 billion. This rapid “withdrawal” of institutional funds has directly increased selling pressure in the market and is a key factor triggering the recent decline in Bitcoin’s price.

Meanwhile, macro-level uncertainties are also intensifying market volatility. Geopolitical tensions and the fluctuating policy outlooks of major global economies have affected all risk assets, including stocks and bonds. As a highly volatile asset, Bitcoin’s short-term price movements are inevitably influenced by such “risk-averse” sentiments. Some analysts have pointed out that there has been an increase in stablecoin conversions to fiat currency, which often indicates that some institutional investors are temporarily reducing their risk exposure.

Current Bitcoin (BTC) Market Data Overview

Based on real-time data from Gate, as of January 26, 2026, we can see a clearer picture of Bitcoin’s market status:

• Price Performance: BTC is currently priced at $87,692.4. Its price has fluctuated between $86,100 and $89,185.2 over the past 24 hours, with a 24-hour decline of 1.67%.
• Trading Activity: The 24-hour trading volume is approximately $1.04 billion, indicating that the market maintains high liquidity during periods of high volatility.
• Market Cap and Position: Bitcoin’s total market capitalization remains high at $1.79 trillion, accounting for 56.48% of the entire cryptocurrency market share, with its dominant position still intact.
• Historical Comparison: The current price is about 30% below the all-time high of $126,080 reached in October 2025, but it still shows a significant increase compared to the lows of the past year.

Trend Reversal or Healthy Correction? Market Perspective

Faced with the decline, market sentiment is divided. Some view ETF fund outflows as an important short-term indicator, with continuous outflows potentially signaling a deeper correction. Previously, some experts pointed out that increased volatility could cause Bitcoin prices to dip toward around $75,000.

However, more analyses tend to view this correction from a long-term perspective. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and others have emphasized that investors should pay more attention to Bitcoin’s annualized returns and its long-term value proposition. Short-term price movements influenced by news events, geopolitical tensions, and fund flows are normal, but they do not alter the underlying technological structure and long-term growth narrative.

A positive development is that Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional assets is subtly shifting. It has begun to show different trends from tech stocks at certain stages, and this “non-correlation” is precisely what many institutional investors value when including Bitcoin in their portfolios—as a potential asset class that can provide differentiated returns.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: Data-Based Outlook for 2026

Any discussion of Bitcoin price forecasts should be based on sufficient data and market understanding, with clear acknowledgment of uncertainties. Based on Gate Research Institute’s comprehensive model and market analysis (data updated to January 26, 2026), we offer the following neutral outlook for reference:

For 2026, the market analysis model indicates that the average annual price of Bitcoin (BTC) may be around $89,734.6. Its price fluctuation range is expected to be broad, with potential lows near $52,943.41, and if market sentiment turns extremely optimistic with favorable macro conditions, the price could challenge the high of $126,525.78. This reflects the significant divergence of expectations driven by factors such as halving cycles, the widespread adoption of new financial instruments, and changes in global liquidity.

Looking further ahead, some models have performed long-term projections up to 2031. Data suggests that Bitcoin’s price could reach as high as $271,045.28 in the long run. Please note that this is a long-term scenario based on specific models and assumptions, not a short-term price target. Compared to current prices, it represents a theoretical growth potential, but investing involves substantial risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Conclusion: Navigating Long-Term Narratives Amid Volatility

The current adjustment in Bitcoin’s price mainly stems from short-term profit-taking, ETF fund flows, and macroeconomic uncertainties. For investors, the key may lie in distinguishing short-term noise from long-term trends.

The Bitcoin market has entered a new phase defined by spot ETFs, institutional adoption, and global macro asset allocation. While short-term volatility remains intense, Bitcoin’s network security, scarcity, and potential role in the global digital economy remain unchanged. For those considering digital assets, it is more important to understand their volatility characteristics thoroughly and make decisions based on rigorous research and personal risk tolerance rather than chasing short-term price movements.

You can securely and efficiently manage your crypto assets through Gate’s spot and futures trading products. Gate offers deep market liquidity, real-time market data (including all BTC data cited in this article), and abundant educational resources to help users navigate the complex market environment.