BTC has fallen for 7 consecutive days, breaking below 87,000, but the bears are celebrating wildly.

According to the latest news, BTC has broken below the 87,000 USDT level, with the current price at 86,980.7 USDT. This is not an isolated decline but a continuation of a larger correction. Over the past 7 days, BTC has decreased by a total of 8.41%, with a 2.27% drop in the last 24 hours. Interestingly, despite the market generally being bearish, bearish whales are aggressively accumulating positions, and market divergence is intensifying.

BTC’s Downward Momentum

Based on data, BTC’s recent price performance shows a clear downward trend:

This indicates that BTC’s decline has been mainly concentrated over the past week, with the monthly gains almost completely erased.

Market background: Capital fleeing

According to relevant information, this decline is not unique to BTC. Over the past week, there has been a noticeable capital outflow from the crypto market:

• BTC ETF net outflow of 433 coins (approximately $3.85 million) in one day, with a total net outflow of 18,050 coins (about $1.61 billion) over 7 days
• ETH ETF net outflow of 22,174 coins (about $648,600), with a total net outflow of 189,350 coins (about $553.85 million) over 7 days
• In contrast, SOL ETF experienced an opposite trend, with a net inflow of 87,508 coins (about $1.103 million) over 7 days

This divergence in capital flows highlights the situation well. On a macro level, foreign investors are accelerating the sell-off of US Treasuries, pushing yields higher. This pressure is driving capital into safe-haven assets like gold. According to analysis, the BTC-to-gold ratio has fallen to its lowest point in two years, indicating a clear market preference for gold in the current macro environment.

But bears are celebrating

An interesting contrast is that, despite the overall bearish sentiment, on-chain data shows large bearish whales actively accumulating. According to reports, an “ultimate short” whale has been shorting BTC since January last year. The first three short positions resulted in a total loss of $5.48 million, but the most recent short has achieved significant profits, earning a total of $9.94 million in funding rate income, with contract profits exceeding $55.6 million, and an annualized profit of $65.5 million. Currently, this address still holds a 20x leveraged BTC short position, with a scale of about $44.5 million and an unrealized profit of approximately $11.2 million.

Another “air force commander” whale is actively adjusting holdings. After being liquidated for $199 million yesterday, it quickly rolled over short positions on multiple coins and opened a new $15 million SOL short position, bringing total holdings back to $305 million.

Market Divergence: Not a Full Downtrend

It’s worth noting that although BTC and ETH are declining, the market is not entirely bearish. Data shows that sectors like GameFi, AI, and RWA are relatively resilient, with 24-hour gains of 1.06%, 0.98%, and 0.67%, respectively. Among them, The Sandbox in GameFi rose by 8.57%, Render in AI increased by 5.36%, and the newly launched Sentient surged by 482.08%.

This indicates a structural adjustment in the market, with leading coins under pressure, while certain sectors still have growth potential.

Short-term Focus: Options Expiry and Technical Support

According to reports, over $2.1 billion in crypto options will expire today at 08:00 UTC on Deribit. The nominal value of BTC options is $1.81 billion, with the maximum pain point at $92,000. This means that if BTC rebounds to around $92,000, it could trigger large-scale options exercise, potentially influencing market trends.

From a technical perspective, based on 4-hour candlestick analysis, BTC’s recent support level is at $88,365, with resistance at $91,179. The current price is approaching the support level, and whether it can hold this position in the short term will be critical.

Summary

BTC breaking below 87,000 reflects not just a price point breach but also several deeper market changes: first, macroeconomic pressures driving capital into safe assets like gold; second, market divergence with leading coins under pressure but some sectors still showing growth; third, active bearish forces, though the market is not in full panic. In the short term, options expiry and technical support levels will be key points to watch. For investors, this adjustment may present both risks and opportunities, but caution is advised in choosing directions.