Based on data up to today (January 26, 2026), Bitcoin prices have recently fluctuated within the range of $88,000 to $91,000. The following is a summary and analysis based on publicly available information.

📊 Market Data Snapshot Today

· Current Price (CME Futures): $89,270.0
· 24-Hour Change: -0.06%
· Intraday Volatility Range: $89,185.0 - $90,137.5
· Recent Key Support Levels: Around $88,000 - $88,300
· Recent Key Resistance Levels: Around $91,000 - $92,000

📉 Recent Trends and Market Dynamics

Since mid-January, Bitcoin has retreated from a high of approximately $98,000 and is currently in a consolidation phase. The following are several key factors influencing the market recently:

1. Macro Sentiment and Policy Factors

· Potential Bullish: U.S. President Trump recently stated that legislation supporting cryptocurrencies will be signed "soon," boosting market expectations for clearer policies.
· Uncertainty: Concerns over the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, volatility in the Japanese bond market triggering global risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions (such as Trump's tariff threats against EU countries) have put pressure on risk assets.

2. On-Chain and Technical Analysis Signals

· Bearish Signals: Some on-chain data indicators show signs of weakening. For example, Glassnode data indicates Bitcoin's price has fallen below the cost basis of 75% of the supply (around $92,940), which may suggest increased selling pressure. Additionally, some analysts point out that long-term momentum indicators (like the 2-month MACD) have shown bearish crossovers.
· Bullish Perspectives: Some analysts believe the current decline is a healthy correction that helps clear excessive leverage in the market. A retracement near the opening price of 2026 could be an important observation zone.

3. Capital Flows and Market Structure
Recent market drivers have shifted. Some analyses suggest that Bitcoin's price movement is largely influenced by spot ETF capital flows, while on-chain activity remains relatively subdued. This indicates that capital inflows and outflows in traditional finance may have a more direct impact on short-term prices than blockchain on-chain activity.

🔮 Market Outlook and Key Observation Points

Future market trends are subject to differing opinions, mainly focusing on the effectiveness of support levels below and resistance breakthroughs above.

Bullish and Bearish Summary

· Bullish View
· Main Reason: This correction is viewed as a healthy adjustment within a bull market, helping to solidify the foundation. If key support levels (such as $88,000) hold and momentum builds to break resistance levels (such as $91,000), the upward trend could resume. Additionally, potential crypto-friendly legislation is an important long-term positive.
· Key Signal: Whether the price can stay above $88,000 support and volume breakout above the $91,000-$92,000 resistance zone.
· Cautious/Bearish View
· Main Reason: Some on-chain profit indicators have turned negative, indicating investors are starting to realize losses, which could be an early sign of a bear market. If the price effectively breaks below $88,000 support, further declines to $84,000 or lower are possible.
· Key Signal: Whether the price can quickly recover the critical level of $92,940 (75% cost basis). Persistent trading below this level would increase downside risk.

💡 Summary and Trading Recommendations

Overall, Bitcoin is in a critical consolidation phase. The support around $88,000 is an important bullish defense line, while the resistance at $91,000 to $92,000 is the primary obstacle to overcome.

For traders, close attention should be paid to:

1. Key Price Levels: Monitor the battle between support and resistance levels mentioned above.
2. ETF Capital Flow Data: This has become an important short-term market indicator.
3. Macro News: Especially developments in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation, regulation, and monetary policy signals from major global economies.