$130 million liquidation in 24 hours, why did BTC longs become the biggest "victims"

The entire network experienced liquidations of $130 million in the past 24 hours, with BTC liquidations accounting for $30.75 million, representing over 20%. More notably, long positions were liquidated at a much larger scale than short positions, reflecting subtle shifts in market sentiment. Currently, BTC hovers around $88,357, facing liquidation pressures at multiple price levels.

Liquidation Data Overview: Longs Are Failing

According to Coinglass data, the liquidation structure over the past 24 hours shows clear asymmetry:

The implication behind this data is clear: bullish traders are being “massacred” more severely. The amount of long liquidations is 2.35 times that of shorts, indicating that recent market enthusiasm for longs is cooling, and heavily leveraged long positions are paying the price.

Why Are BTC Longs the Main Target

Out of the $30.75 million BTC liquidated, longs account for the majority, closely related to recent BTC price movements. According to recent reports, BTC has fallen 0.90% in the past 24 hours, with a 7-day decline of 7.06%. This sustained downward environment is most unfavorable for long traders.

More importantly, BTC is facing clear liquidation pressure. If BTC drops below $88,000, the cumulative liquidation of longs on major exchanges could reach $638 million. This means that at the $88,000 level, a large number of longs will be forced to close, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations.

Complex Market Sentiment Signals

Liquidation data is just the surface; deeper market sentiment indicators are more worth paying attention to:

Funding Rate Divergence

Current funding rates on major exchanges show a moderation in bearish sentiment for BTC and SOL, with some platforms returning to neutral rates. This suggests that extremely bearish traders have taken profits and exited, and the market is beginning to seek a new equilibrium. However, large-scale bearish sentiment on altcoins still persists, indicating a divergence in market risk appetite.

Coinbase Premium Index Remains in Negative Premium

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 9 consecutive days, with the latest negative premium widening to -0.1399%. This reflects significant selling pressure in the US market and a decline in investor risk appetite. Over the past 30 days, 28 days have been in negative premium, a rare sustained environment.

Deposit Sentiment Continues

Conversely, deposit sentiment remains active. In the past 24 hours, net inflow of 1,445.66 BTC into centralized exchanges, with Binance net inflow of 1,742.35 BTC. Deposits usually indicate traders preparing to sell on exchanges, but could also be large holders building or adjusting positions. This creates a certain contradiction with the negative premium environment.

Key Price Levels and Liquidation Map

From a liquidation pressure perspective, BTC is currently in a relatively risky position:

• $88,000: Longs face a liquidation strength of $638 million. Falling below this level would trigger large-scale stop-losses among longs, creating a downward liquidity wave.
• $91,000: Shorts face a liquidation strength of $1.034 billion. Conversely, breaking above this level would trigger large-scale short liquidations, generating an upward liquidity wave.

The distance between these two levels is about $3,000, forming a relatively narrow “safety corridor.” BTC is currently oscillating within this corridor, and any breakout in either direction could trigger chain reactions.

Two Key Observations for Future Trends

Market Sentiment Recovery Will Take Time

Although funding rates have eased, Coinbase’s persistent negative premium indicates that confidence in the US market has not fully recovered. If the negative premium continues to widen, it suggests increasing selling pressure in the US, which could hinder BTC’s upward movement.

Longs Are Becoming More Vulnerable

The scale of long liquidations far exceeds that of shorts, indicating that while there may be many long traders, their average leverage or positions might be relatively low. Once the price breaks below key support levels, these longs could become “fragile,” potentially triggering chain liquidations.

Summary

The $130 million liquidation wave in the past 24 hours marks a turning point: extremely bearish traders have taken profits and exited, but enthusiasm for longs is also waning. BTC is in a relatively fragile balance, with the levels of $88,000 and $91,000 determining the short-term direction. The divergence in market sentiment (diminished bearishness on BTC, continued bearishness on altcoins) also suggests that this decline could be structural rather than purely technical. The key indicator to watch is whether Coinbase’s premium index can recover from negative territory, which will be an important signal of a shift in US market sentiment.