#达沃斯世界经济论坛 Cryptocurrency welcomes policy tailwinds; has the turning point arrived?

The Bitcoin payment bill is advancing in multiple states, and the Federal Reserve Chair frontrunner has a positive attitude, leading to a subtle shift in market sentiment—cryptocurrency markets seem to be at the starting point of a new rally.
Early morning crypto news pushes are once again filling the screen: Oklahoma has submitted a bill proposing to allow Bitcoin payments; a key hearing on crypto market structure legislation is scheduled for next week; Riot Platforms executives openly state that taxing Bitcoin in the US is “unjustified.”
Meanwhile, funding rate data shows that market bearish sentiment toward Bitcoin and SOL has eased. These signals, intertwined, outline the current policy environment and sentiment shift in the crypto market.
 Policy Tailwinds
The policy environment for cryptocurrencies is quietly changing. The latest bill submitted in Oklahoma directly challenges traditional payment systems, marking another US state-level move to open the door for Bitcoin payments after Florida.
This trend is not isolated; it reflects a growing openness to cryptocurrencies at the local level across the US. Policymakers are beginning to realize that excessive restrictions could drive innovation overseas.
Next week, the crypto market structure legislation will hold a critical hearing, with bipartisan lawmakers proposing amendments. This indicates that cryptocurrencies are moving from the regulatory fringe toward mainstream legislation, providing clearer compliance pathways for the market.
Although Ukraine’s ban on Polymarket appears negative, such incidents are not uncommon during the early development stages of the crypto industry. Crypto-friendly policies are gradually being realized worldwide, as evidenced by adjustments in Bitcoin tax policies in multiple countries.
Tax Barriers
The promotion of Bitcoin payments still faces significant obstacles, most notably tax policies. Strive executives directly state, “The biggest obstacle to Bitcoin payments is tax policy.”
Current US tax policies require capital gains tax on Bitcoin transactions, making small daily payments complicated and impractical. Riot Platforms executives point out that Bitcoin is tax-exempt in many countries but faces unreasonable tax burdens in the US.
Adjustments to tax policies could become a key catalyst for the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies. As more countries and state governments consider policy changes, barriers to Bitcoin as a payment method are gradually decreasing.
If the US relaxes its tax policies, it could trigger a chain reaction, promoting the practical application of Bitcoin in retail and commercial scenarios, thereby supporting its intrinsic value.
Market Sentiment
Funding rate data reveals subtle changes in market sentiment. Current mainstream CEX and DEX data show that bearish sentiment toward BTC and SOL has eased.
Funding rates are mechanisms in perpetual contract markets used to balance long and short positions. Positive rates indicate dominance by longs, while negative rates show short dominance. The narrowing of negative rates suggests that short pressure is easing.
This shift in market sentiment is not accidental. It resonates with the improving policy environment and reflects growing investor confidence in the future of cryptocurrencies.
It’s worth noting that this sentiment shift is still in its early stages and has not yet formed a clear bullish consensus, which instead provides a good entry point for cautious investors.
Macro Environment
The macro environment also influences the crypto market. Rick Rieder’s probability of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair has risen to 58%, making him the top candidate.
This BlackRock global fixed income chief investment officer is seen as a moderate candidate, with a relatively open attitude toward emerging asset classes. If Rick Rieder indeed takes the helm at the Fed, cryptocurrencies could enjoy a more friendly policy environment.
The Federal Reserve’s policies directly impact global liquidity, which is a key driver of the crypto market. A more accommodative monetary policy environment will benefit risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
It’s important to note that Fed personnel changes are just one of many macro variables. Global geopolitical situations, inflation trends, and economic growth prospects will all influence the medium- and long-term performance of cryptocurrencies.
Market Outlook
Based on current policy trends, tax environment changes, market sentiment adjustments, and macro background, the crypto market is at a critical turning point.
Gradual clarity in policy provides a more stable development environment; breakthroughs in tax barriers could unlock the potential of Bitcoin payment scenarios; a gentle shift in market sentiment reflects recovering investor confidence; macro changes could bring more favorable liquidity conditions.
In the short term, the market may continue to oscillate within the current range, awaiting more definitive policy signals. In the medium term, with the advancement of crypto market structure legislation and increased adoption of Bitcoin payments in more regions, cryptocurrencies may experience a new wave of valuation reassessment.
Investors should focus on key events: the outcome of the crypto market structure legislation hearing, progress on more state-level Bitcoin payment bills, and the final results of Fed personnel changes.
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An interesting detail is that while Oklahoma and Florida promote Bitcoin payment bills, Ukraine has banned the prediction market platform Polymarket on grounds of illegal gambling.
This policy divergence reveals differing perceptions among global regulators regarding cryptocurrencies and hints that the future crypto market will navigate through twists and turns amid these divergences and consensus.
Current funding rates show that bearish sentiment has eased, and the market seems to be accumulating strength for the next rally. Improvements in the regulatory environment and increased institutional acceptance are laying a more solid foundation for the crypto market.
The policy tailwinds are rising, tax barriers are loosening, and market sentiment is warming—perhaps the crypto winter is quietly coming to an end.