January 24 | ETH Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $2,958 (as of January 24) Short-term Outlook: Volatile and weak, in a bottoming phase Key Support: $2,870-$2,900 Key Resistance: $3,000-$3,100

Technical Analysis

ETH has recently experienced a significant pullback from above $3,300 and is currently trading around $2,950, showing a clear bearish pattern technically.

Oversold Signal Confirmation: RSI on 4-hour and daily charts are both below 40, indicating the market is oversold. The 4-hour RSI is 38.4, and the daily RSI is 39.8. Although not in extreme oversold territory (below 30), it clearly signals short-term weakness.

Moving Average Resistance: The current price is significantly below key moving averages:

• 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA20): $3,153
• 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA20): $3,097
• 200-day Simple Moving Average: $3,671

The deviation from SMA20 is 6.2%, indicating a pronounced short-term downtrend.

Bollinger Bands Analysis: The daily lower Bollinger Band is at $2,872, forming an important support resonance with the recent low of $2,872. The upper band at $3,434 and the middle band at $3,153 serve as significant resistance levels for recent rebounds.

MACD Signal: The daily MACD shows negative values (-25.4), with the signal line at 14.1 and histogram at -39.5, confirming ongoing downward momentum. However, the 4-hour MACD histogram has turned positive (1.53), hinting at a potential short-term technical rebound.

Derivatives Market Status

Derivatives data indicates that excessive leverage has been effectively cleaned up:

Open Interest Changes: Total open interest decreased from $18.88 billion on January 17 to $16.95 billion on January 23, a 10.2% decline, showing leverage funds are exiting the market.

Funding Rates: The average funding rate is 0.272%, in a neutral zone, neither extremely positive (overheated longs) nor negative (dominated by shorts), reflecting balanced market sentiment.

Liquidation Data: Total liquidations over 24 hours amounted to $93 million, with a long-short liquidation ratio of 0.54, indicating more long positions were liquidated, mainly cleaning up long leverage during the decline.

Price Trend Review

Recent ETH price movements show a clear downtrend:

• January 18: From a high of $3,295, began to decline
• January 21: Dropped sharply by 7.8%, from $3,186 to $2,936
• January 22-24: Consolidated in the $2,870-$3,050 range

This pattern reflects a technical correction after a continuous rally and the process of leverage liquidation.

Short-term Outlook and Trading Strategies

Volatile and Weak Pattern: Based on current technicals and derivatives data, ETH is expected to consolidate between $2,870 and $3,100 in the short term. The oversold condition provides a technical basis for a rebound, but moving average resistance and downward momentum still need time to be absorbed.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support: $2,870-$2,900, a critical support zone; breaking below could test $2,800
• Resistance: $3,000 psychological level; $3,100 (EMA20) as technical resistance
• Breakout Signal: A confirmed break above $3,100 could open the path toward a rebound to $3,200-$3,300

Risk Reminder: Although oversold conditions offer rebound opportunities, the overall technical structure remains weak. Investors should control positions and set strict stop-losses below $2,870.