January 24 | BTC Trend Analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $89,686.57 (As of: January 24, 2026, 10:46)

Short-term Outlook: Since the price is below the key daily moving averages and market sentiment is extremely fearful, the short-term trend is expected to be oscillating downward or consolidating near the midline. Close attention should be paid to signs of bottoming and stabilization, especially the support from the lower Bollinger Band around $87,300 on the daily chart.

Key Support Levels:

• $88,686 (1-hour Bollinger Band lower band)
• $87,300 (Daily Bollinger Band lower band)

Key Resistance Levels:

• $90,454 (1-hour Bollinger Band upper band)
• $92,261 (20-day Moving Average)

Technical Indicator Analysis

Multi-timeframe Technical Signals

From the technical indicators, BTC is currently at a critical technical watershed:

Key Technical Levels Analysis:

• Price is currently between the middle and lower bands of the daily Bollinger, indicating decreasing volatility.
• All major moving averages (SMA20 $92,261, SMA50 $90,223, EMA20 $91,330) are acting as resistance.
• The 4-hour ADX reaches 43.1, indicating a relatively strong current trend.

On-chain Data and Market Sentiment

Valuation Metrics Indicate Fair Value Zone

MVRV Ratio 1.6: Indicates a “fair value” zone, suggesting from an on-chain cost basis that BTC is neither significantly overvalued nor severely undervalued. Historically, MVRV in the 1.5-2.0 range often corresponds to consolidation phases.

SOPR 0.9472: Shows “capitulation selling,” with holders selling at an average loss of 5.28%. Such loss-motivated exits often occur near local bottoms.

NUPL 0.3752: At the lower end of the “optimistic” zone, indicating a decline in unrealized profits. Market optimism is waning but has not yet reached extreme panic.

Market Sentiment is Extremely Fearful

Fear & Greed Index 24: In “Extreme Fear” territory, the lowest since late December 2025. Historically, when this index drops below 25, it often signals a short-term bottom.

Short-term Trend Forecast

Probable Scenario: Oscillating Downward Test of Support

Based on current technical and sentiment analysis, the more likely short-term (24-48 hours) scenario is continued oscillation downward, testing key support levels:

1. First Support $88,686: 1-hour Bollinger lower band; a break below could accelerate the decline.
2. Important Support $87,300: Daily Bollinger lower band, also a psychological key level, expected to provide strong support.

Less Probable Scenario: Oversold Rebound

If support at $87,300 holds and a volume-driven rebound occurs, upward testing could happen at:

• First Resistance $90,454: 1-hour Bollinger upper band
• Key Resistance $92,261: 20-day Moving Average; breaking this is necessary to reverse the short-term downtrend.

Key Signals to Watch

1. Volume Changes: A volume spike breaking below $87,300 or above $90,454 will confirm the direction.
2. Fear & Greed Index Changes: Further decline below 20 could indicate extreme panic bottom.
3. On-chain Large Transfers: Monitoring whale addresses’ movements; large transfers to exchanges often signal further downside.

Risk Warning

The market is currently in extreme fear. While historical data suggests this often marks a bottom, caution is still necessary before trend reversal. Recommendations:

• Short-term traders: Wait for clear signals before acting; avoid blind trading near key levels.
• Medium- to long-term investors: Consider deploying gradually around $87,300, but be prepared for further declines.
• Stop-loss: For existing positions, set stops below $86,000 to prevent unexpected drops below key support.

Overall Assessment: Technical indicators are weak, sentiment is extremely pessimistic, but on-chain data shows valuation within a zone. The short-term may continue to test lows, but medium- to long-term value is emerging.