Unlicensed Vendors

@From city management's unwarranted crackdown to legal compliance

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Market Analysis Today
If the past cryptocurrency market was like an unlicensed vendor wandering the streets, whose stall could be seized by city management at any moment, then a series of recent news essentially announces that this vendor has not only obtained a business license but even the city management team is stepping in to help him run his business. The most significant news is the joint meeting scheduled for January 27 between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). In the past, these two agencies were like cats and dogs in the crypto world, fighting over who should regulate and how to penalize. Now, they are sitting together to discuss how to implement Trump’s “Global Crypto Capital” agenda. This indicates a fundamental reversal in regulatory logic: from the previous “arrest first, then talk” approach to “set rules first, then act.” This shift from “enforcement” to “legislation” marks the ultimate watershed for the industry’s transition from the fringe to mainstream.

This change in direction is most directly reflected in the “clearing of old accounts.” The SEC has revoked its civil lawsuit against the Gi exchange, and it’s a complete withdrawal—meaning they won’t sue again in the future. This was almost unimaginable a few years ago. In the past, the SEC was like a strict instructor with a magnifying glass, ready to label any financial product as “illegal securities” if you dared to create one. Now, the instructor has put down the baton and returned the confiscated teaching tools. This “rectification” sends a very strong signal: the era of regulation through lawsuits is over.

Meanwhile, Grayscale has seized the opportunity to submit an ETF application for BNB. If Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are considered “appetizers,” then a BNB ETF—an asset with strong platform characteristics—would be akin to official recognition of exchange tokens’ legitimacy. This is not only a big gift for Binance but also opens a door for the entire industry to access traditional financial markets.

Speaking of traditional finance, Binance is not idle; they plan to relaunch the “stock token” trading that was halted four years ago. Simply put, it allows you to buy stocks of companies like Apple or Tesla on crypto exchanges, just like buying Bitcoin. This is essentially a “dimensionality reduction attack.” Previously, to buy US stocks, you had to open accounts, exchange currencies, and endure cross-border transfer hassles; now, if you can buy stocks directly with stablecoins, cryptocurrencies truly become a bridge connecting to real assets. Although current data shows that last year’s $35 trillion in stablecoin settlements only 1% was used for real-world purchases like bubble tea or payroll, with the remaining 99% still circulating within the crypto space, this highlights enormous potential. When stocks, bonds, and even bank licenses (such as Trump-related World Liberty Bank) start operating on the crypto track, that 1% of real-world applications will rapidly expand like a snowball.

Finally, we need to look at the macro-level “money flow.” Silver prices broke through $100, hitting a new all-time high, which is a big event in the investment world. Usually, the “old money” like gold and silver rises first, followed by Bitcoin—often called “digital gold”—leading the rally, and then various altcoins follow. The surge in silver often indicates that there is an excess of idle funds in the market. Coupled with Arthur Hayes’ mention of the yen exchange rate logic—if the Federal Reserve starts easing to stabilize global exchange rates, then for assets like Bitcoin that are highly sensitive to liquidity, it’s like pouring gasoline on a fire. The current situation is: the policy “straitjacket” has been removed, the “connective bridge” has been built, and the “great flood” at the macro level is imminent. We are standing at the crossroads of an old era ending and a new order beginning.