ETH drops below 2950, US spot ETF experiences significant outflows, oversold technicals suggest a rebound is imminent

According to the latest news, ETH has broken below the 2950 USDT integer level, with the current price at 2949.01 USDT. This decline is not isolated; it is driven by multiple pressure resonances: US spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $238.55 million yesterday, and exchanges are also undergoing a continuous withdrawal trend. Technical indicators show oversold signals. The short-term decline has been quite substantial, but where is the rebound space?

Multiple Pressures on the Decline

US Spot ETF Continues to Outflow

Yesterday, the US Ethereum spot ETF saw significant outflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA net outflow of $100.90 million, Fidelity’s FETH net outflow of $51.54 million, and other firms also experiencing varying degrees of outflows. Such scale of outflows usually reflects cautiousness among institutional investors, possibly related to a short-term decline in market risk appetite.

CEX Withdrawal Surge Continues

In the past 24 hours, exchanges have experienced a total net outflow of 38,600 ETH, with Binance outflows reaching up to 33,900 ETH. This is often interpreted by the market as investors moving assets to cold wallets or other platforms, which could be risk-avoidance or preparation for large transactions.

Short-term Trend Faces Clear Pressure

The rapid decline in 1 hour and the 9.78% drop over 7 days indicate short-term pressure, but the slight increase over 24 hours suggests the market is still searching for a bottom consensus.

Technical Oversold Signals

Based on 4-hour K-line analysis, ETH is currently in several noteworthy states:

• KDJ indicator has formed a death cross and is in oversold territory (values between 9-13)
• RSI is below 30, indicating oversold conditions technically
• MACD histogram remains negative but is gradually shortening, showing increasing bullish momentum
• Support level is around 2949, resistance at 3437

These combined indicators often suggest a potential rebound, especially in oversold conditions.

Whales’ Accumulation Actions

Interestingly, while prices declined, large institutions did not reduce their holdings. Trend Research holds 651,300 ETH and recently transferred 70 million USDT to Binance to buy 24,555 ETH; 7 Siblings locked 596,800 ETH on the Spark protocol across 8 addresses, spending a total of $174 million since October last year to acquire 49,287 ETH. Both major whales adopted a “buying the dip” strategy, indicating confidence in the long-term outlook.

Potential Rebound Space

From a technical perspective, if ETH can hold the support at 2949, the first target for a rebound may be in the 3000-3100 range, with further resistance at 3346-3437. Considering oversold indicators and whale accumulation, the probability of a short-term rebound is relatively high, but it depends on whether ETH can effectively break through the recent resistance at 2980.

Summary

ETH breaking below 2950 reflects short-term downward pressure, but this decline is already quite substantial. US spot ETF outflows are a pressure factor but are relatively manageable in scale; oversold signals in technical analysis often indicate rebound opportunities; whale accumulation suggests long-term confidence. In the short term, the key is whether ETH can hold the 2949 support. If it does, a rebound above 3000 is a reasonable expectation. Investors should monitor the performance around the 2949 key level and whether trading volume supports a rebound.