Bank of Japan rate hike expectations: On January 23, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.5% (the highest in 18 years), triggering the unwinding of yen arbitrage trades, draining global liquidity, and suppressing risk assets like BTC.

• US trade and policy risks: The Trump administration plans to impose tariffs on the EU, leading to a cooling of global risk appetite, with funds shifting from cryptocurrencies to traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

• Fed rate cut expectations cool down: The US economy's resilience exceeds expectations, and the rate cut in the first quarter may be lower than market expectations, with high interest rates increasing the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets.