1. Market Overview

Based on the provided candlestick data, ETH's current latest closing price is $2949.45, with a significant expansion in price fluctuations. The daily data over the past 14 days shows that ETH experienced a high of $3368.82 before a continuous decline, with the lowest touching $2866.11, and it has now fallen below the $3000 level. In terms of trading volume, recent high-volume periods such as at $3069.07 and $3200.5 have been noticeably higher than the recent contraction phase, indicating a decline in market participation and increased short-term bullish and bearish divergence. The 48-hour hourly data further indicates that ETH has been oscillating within the $3019 to $2950 range, with multiple short-term rebound attempts that were all suppressed. Market news mainly focuses on the overall negative sentiment and rebound rhythm in the external crypto market, with some analysts adopting a cautious stance and showing a phased wait-and-see attitude.

2. Technical Analysis
The daily K-line shows ETH's continuous decline from its high point, with the recent low at $2866.11 and the recent high at $3368.82. The largest single-day drop within 14 days was from $3189.56 to $2939.88, a decline of over 7.8%. In the past 48 hours, the price has been resisted by the $3044 to $2950 zone multiple times without success. The short-term high is $3011.51, and the low is $2866.11. Key support levels are at $2900 and $2866, with resistance concentrated at $3019, $3044, and $3157, all of which are densely traded historical high zones. In terms of volume, the maximum daily volume was 374,133 (at the rebound high), while the latest single-day volume is only 111.383, indicating a strong market wait-and-see atmosphere. On the hourly chart, short-term decline accompanied by increased volume, especially in the $2866-$2930 range, suggests loss of bullish momentum after losing support. The overall trend has shifted from top oscillation to a downward channel, with rebound highs gradually decreasing, showing clear short-term weakness.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Recent market news mainly focuses on ETH's lack of rebound strength after breaking below key levels. Many reports point to ETH losing the $2900 support, leading to a decline in market confidence. Experts generally believe that if ETH cannot stabilize effectively, it is highly likely to test the $2500 support level. Headlines such as "Ethereum experienced a 10.6% correction last week and temporarily lost the $2900 support" align closely with the sharp decline shown in the candlestick data. Additionally, some analysts consider $3120 to be a critical battleground for bulls and bears; a breakout above this level could signal a potential stabilization and rebound. In the short term, there are no new regulatory updates, and market operation is mainly driven by trading sentiment and technical factors.

4. Analyst Opinions
According to analyst commentary, "All positions are firmly holding ETH. Earlier, once it approached the key level around 3044, it was a sign to be cautious... ETH at 3044 is a critical level, so pay close attention, and those not yet bound should expedite binding." Analysts repeatedly emphasize that $3044 is a very critical short-term resistance, warning to beware of a further decline if the breakout fails. This view aligns with the candlestick trend, where ETH repeatedly failed to break through $3044 and has recently continued to fall below $2950. Furthermore, analysts specifically point out, "The short-term support at $3157 for ETH, relative to BTC's 90800, is crucial. As long as ETH can stay above this level, there is still a chance for a short-term upward challenge." In reality, ETH has already broken below $3157, with a clear weak market trend, showing a somewhat pessimistic outlook.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Trading Suggestions
Based on the above candlestick data and analysis, ETH's short-term trend remains weak. If it cannot regain above $3044, the market will further test the support at $2900-$2866. A break below $2866 could re-ignite bearish momentum, with downside potential toward $2500. Short-term resistance levels are at $2955, $3019, and $3044. If volume does not increase to break through these levels, focus on defense. Trading suggestions: Aggressive traders may seek ultra-short-term rebounds near the $2900 support but must set strict stop-losses; if the price falls below $2866, they should exit decisively. Conservative investors should wait for a confirmed breakout above $3019 and $3044 before gradually entering positions, paying close attention to volume and price recovery signals. Overall, a wait-and-see approach is recommended, patiently awaiting a new directional move.

6. Risk Warning
ETH is currently under significant downward pressure, with large short-term price fluctuations and rapidly shrinking trading volume, indicating increased capital outflows. If sudden negative news or a loss of bullish confidence occurs, ETH could quickly break current supports, intensifying downside risks. Pay close attention to the two key support levels at $2900 and $2866; a breakdown of these could trigger panic selling. Additionally, overall market sentiment remains cautious, with insufficient capital inflow, so short-term operations and position management should prioritize risk control. Avoid blindly chasing gains or cutting losses to prevent unnecessary losses.