What are the current era dividends?

In 1992, after Deng Xiaoping's southern tour speech, a group of people within the system made a decision that seemed crazy at the time—quitting their iron rice bowls to start their own businesses. This group was later called the "92 faction."

Chen Dongsheng resigned from the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation to establish Taikang Insurance; Feng Lun left the system to found Wantong; Tian Yuan quit his position at the Development Research Center of the State Council to start a futures exchange.

At that time, everyone around them thought these people had problems in their heads—why leave good positions as directors and section chiefs to become individual entrepreneurs? What was the point?

Thirty years have passed, and these people's wealth is at least tens or hundreds of millions.

And most of those who mocked them are still worried about whether their retirement pensions are enough to cover expenses.

This is the cruel reality of era dividends: when you understand them, they are no longer dividends; when they are still dividends, you are likely to not understand them.

You ask what the current era dividends are. Let me pour some cold water first—you can see this question on Zhihu, which means you probably won't get the fattest piece of the pie anymore.

Those who truly benefit from dividends are either early planners or accidental beneficiaries; very few are those who "think carefully before acting." But on the other hand, dividends come in layers— you can't access the top layer, but there are still opportunities in the lower layers.

The key is to understand what is a genuine dividend and what is a trap disguised as a dividend. Let me share my understanding of "era dividends." Many people interpret dividends as "easy money," which is a huge misconception.

What is the essence of dividends? It is supply and demand mismatch. When a new thing appears, demand is already there, but supply hasn't caught up yet. This time gap is the dividend window.

Real estate is like this—urbanization has long created housing demand, but the supply of commercial housing couldn't keep up, so early homebuyers "won the lottery."

The internet is similar—demand for online activity existed long before, but few companies could provide services, so early website builders profited.

New media is even more so—people's attention had already shifted to mobile phones, but few could produce short videos, so early bloggers reaped dividends.

You'll notice that all dividends share a common feature: the entry barrier is rising. When e-commerce first started, just typing was enough;

Now, doing e-commerce requires understanding supply chains, traffic investment, content creation, and private domain operations—none can be overlooked.

In the early days, as long as you could write, people would watch; now, you need professionalism, a persona, continuous output ability, and patience as traffic declines. The process of rising barriers is also the process of dividends fading.

When the barrier becomes so high that only professionals can handle it, it is no longer called a dividend; it becomes an industry.

Therefore, to judge whether something is a dividend, the core points are two:

First, whether the demand truly exists and is growing,

Second, whether the supply side's barriers have yet to be established.

Applying this framework, you'll find that many so-called "hot spots" are not really dividends but noise created by media and capital. So, where are the real dividends at this stage? I'll share my judgment, which may not be correct, but at least I have thought about it seriously.

First, productivity dividends from AI tools.

Note, I am talking about "AI tools," not the "AI industry."

The AI industry is a game for giants—training large models requires enormous computing power and capital, which ordinary people can't afford.

But AI tools are different; they are ready-made productivity amplifiers—key is whether you know how to use them. This is very similar to computers in the 1990s—those who could type on a computer earned significantly more than those who couldn't because of scarcity.

Now, people who know how to use AI can be three to five times more productive than those who don't, and this difference directly reflects in income. I know a PPT designer who used to produce two or three drafts a day; now, with AI, he first creates a framework and then adjusts, producing ten drafts a day.

Is this a dividend? Of course, but it's not a "sit back and earn" dividend; it's a "use tools to improve efficiency" dividend.

This dividend window is expected to last another two or three years—once everyone is using it, the advantage will disappear.

Second, the silver-haired economy. This dividend isn't sexy but has high certainty.

China's population over 60 has approached 300 million, and by 2035, it will surpass 400 million.

This group is wealthy and has leisure time, but the market for products and services targeting them is pitifully small.

Go to shopping malls—how many stores target young people? How many target the elderly?

Aging-friendly renovations, elderly health management, elder care, senior tourism, re-employment training for seniors—each of these segments is a blank space.

The characteristic of this dividend is that it comes slowly but lasts long. It's not a get-rich-quick opportunity but a solid ten-year effort that can succeed. Many people overlook this because they think it's hard to make money from the elderly or that serving seniors lacks technical content.

But on the other hand, the more people look down on it, the less competition there is, and less competition means more dividends.

Third, going overseas. This term may be overused, but it is indeed one of the dividends accessible to ordinary people.

China's supply chain and digital operation capabilities are a disruptive advantage globally. The strategies that seem intense domestically might be a blue ocean in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, or Latin America.

Cross-border e-commerce, short video marketing, game exports, even transplanting domestic restaurant models abroad—all are being done.

The barrier to this dividend is language and cultural adaptation, but barriers also create moats—once crossed, others find it hard to catch up.

I've seen teams working on TikTok markets in Southeast Asia—three or five people generating hundreds of millions in annual revenue, with profit margins much higher than in China because competition isn't fierce.

Fourth, the low-altitude economy. This sounds sci-fi, but it has already begun to land.

Drone delivery, low-altitude tourism, agricultural plant protection—some have already started. The country is increasing openness to low-altitude airspace, and related policy dividends are being released.

Opportunities in this track mainly fall into two areas: one is hardware and systems, which require technology and capital—out of reach for ordinary people; the other is operations and services, such as drone pilots, low-altitude route planning, and related training and education—these are accessible to ordinary people.

Drone licenses are still not widely taken, but demand is rising. When drones fill the streets, the value of this license will increase.