Asset Divergence Under the Warning of Dollar Collapse: Gold Hits Record High, Bitcoin Falls Back to the Starting Point

When Ray Dalio declares that "the era of the US dollar as the reserve currency is collapsing," and when Trump's tariff hammer strikes globally once again, the global asset markets are experiencing an extreme divergence. On one side, gold prices are soaring amid the risk-averse sentiment, with London gold surpassing a historic high of $4,870.7 per ounce, and silver rising nearly 5% in tandem; on the other side, Bitcoin plummeted from $96,000 to below $90,000 within minutes, almost erasing all gains since 2026. Under the triple shocks of a weakening dollar, rising stagflation fears, and escalating geopolitical tensions, gold and Bitcoin—once seen as "inflation-hedging assets"—are heading toward completely different futures. Behind this divergence lies a profound restructuring of the global monetary order and asset pricing logic.

The immediate trigger for this asset divergence is the escalation of trade protectionism by the Trump administration. Not only did the US threaten to impose tariffs on eight NATO allies, but it also pressured Denmark over Greenland, directly triggering a wave of "sell US assets" in global markets. The US dollar index fell below 99.00, marking the largest single-day decline in over a month. However, this dollar sell-off created a stark contrast: gold and Bitcoin experienced two very different reactions. As the ultimate safe haven asset unchanged for millennia, gold became the "absolute safe harbor" amid concerns over US creditworthiness and geopolitical risks. France's BNP Paribas even stated that gold prices could soon reach $5,000 per ounce.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's situation was complicated by Trump's "cryptocurrency capital" concept. FxPro Chief Market Analyst Alex Kuptsikevich precisely pointed out Bitcoin's awkward position: Trump's attempt to position the US as a global crypto hub has led to Bitcoin being perceived as an "American asset." As global capital began to sell off US dollars and US-based assets, Bitcoin naturally became part of the sell list, suffering a double blow from tariffs. This "binding" identity caused Bitcoin to lose its previous inflation-hedging role alongside gold and instead made it a casualty of geopolitical struggles, with the support level of $88,000 now at risk.

If the trade war is the fuse for divergence, then market concerns over the US's "unprecedented stagflation" are the core driver of this trend. The upcoming US December PCE inflation data has become a heavy stone on investors' minds—Barclays and Morgan Stanley have raised their forecasts to 2.8% and 2.9%, respectively, and BNP Paribas bluntly stated that the data will significantly exceed the previous 2.7% CPI figure. As the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, a surprise rise in PCE would confirm the stagflation pattern of "weak growth and soaring prices." CICC's estimates show that Trump's tariffs could push US PCE inflation up by 1.9 percentage points and reduce GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points. Under stagflation pressures, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term is nearly zero, further tightening liquidity expectations across financial markets.

Under the shadow of stagflation, the logic of asset pricing is being fundamentally rewritten. The bullish trend in gold essentially reflects a capital bet on the collapse of fiat currency confidence, especially under the "world order cycle driven by five major forces" mentioned by Dalio—where economic cycles, domestic unrest, and major power conflicts combine, pushing gold's safe-haven value to its peak. Conversely, the weakening of Bitcoin exposes its shortcoming as a "pseudo-safe asset": despite its scarcity, as a high-risk asset, investors prefer the higher certainty of gold amid a sharp decline in risk appetite, rather than cryptocurrencies still influenced by regulation and geopolitical factors. The "$6 trillion crypto market warning" issued by US banks further discourages institutional capital from entering crypto assets, further sapping Bitcoin's upward momentum.

This divergence also confirms the asset selection logic amid the collapse of the dollar system. Last year, the dollar index fell nearly 10%, and markets once bet on a synchronized rally of scarce assets like gold, Bitcoin, and silver. But that logic has now been broken. Dalio's judgment is becoming reality: the existing fiat monetary order and international geopolitical order are disintegrating, and before a new world order forms, capital will only choose the most certain safe assets. The continued rise of gold is a collective vote of confidence in the US dollar's credit; meanwhile, Bitcoin's decline reflects the market's reassessment of its "safe-haven" role—when cryptocurrencies are labeled as "American assets" and regulation and geopolitical risks hang overhead, they struggle to serve as "alternative assets" in the restructured global monetary system.

Currently, the market stands at a crossroads of multiple uncertainties: Will Trump's trade war escalate further? Will the US stagflation persist? Will the dollar's decline turn into a collapse? Can Bitcoin hold the key support at $88,000? The answers to these questions will determine the future trajectory of asset markets. But one thing is certain: the divergence between gold and Bitcoin is not a short-term trend but the beginning of a profound restructuring of the global monetary order and asset pricing logic. In this restructuring, only assets with genuine safe-haven properties and value certainty can stand firm amid chaos.

Will Bitcoin's decline continue? Can the gold bull market break above $5,000? How do you view asset allocation under stagflation? Feel free to share your opinions in the comments, and don't forget to follow, like, and share this article to stay updated on the latest changes in the global asset markets!