Is the "Digital Gold" halo of Bitcoin fading? Technical indicators suggest this scene may repeat itself

【ChainNews】Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold has recently faced difficulties. According to on-chain data analysis, the price ratio between the two is approximately 18.46—this figure has dropped nearly 55% from its peak in December last year. In other words, the cost to exchange Bitcoin for gold has significantly increased.

More straightforwardly, this ratio has fallen below the 200-week moving average line (located at 21.90), with about 17% room below. Looking at a longer time frame, over the past year and five years, gold’s returns have outperformed Bitcoin. This is somewhat ironic—because many have called Bitcoin “digital gold,” but its current performance seems to tell a different story.

Will history repeat itself? Looking at previous bear cycles provides some insight. In 2022, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio was more than 30% below the 200-week moving average and stayed below for over a year. If this cycle follows the same pattern, the ratio might remain below the moving average throughout 2026. However, historically, the declines have been even sharper. The maximum drawdown in 2022 reached 77%, and in 2018 it even hit 84%. Compared to these extremes, the current 55% decline is not small, but there may still be room below from a historical perspective.

Bottom line? This cycle is still unfolding, and the market is redefining Bitcoin’s relative position as a store of value.