Recently, Bitcoin's price movement has sparked quite a bit of discussion. The recent bullish opportunity between 87,000 and 88,000 definitely brought good returns to traders who followed it—Bitcoin precisely retested the 87,300 support level and then rebounded over 300 points. However, there is a key issue that needs clarification: is this current rebound a sign of a trend reversal, or simply a technical correction? On-chain data shows that short-term holders' average cost basis is around 92,900, and the current price is still far from this level. This indicates that the recent bottom-fishing funds are mainly short-term speculators, and institutional-level long-term funds have not significantly entered the market. In other words, during the drop from 97,000 to 87,300—about 10,000 points—the market experienced a natural rebound like a bouncing ball, but this rebound is more of a "self-correction after over-panic," rather than a true trend reversal.

From a technical perspective, it’s even clearer. The daily RSI indicator has already surged to 87, entering an extremely overbought danger zone. Historical data shows that whenever Bitcoin’s RSI exceeds 85, there is an 89% probability of a correction within the next three days. More notably, during the end of 2021, when RSI hit 89, it directly triggered a bear market. Currently, the momentum of this rebound is clearly approaching its limit. Based on the distribution of support levels, the risk control points for short positions and trading strategies are gradually becoming apparent.