2026-01-22 14:00:32

#数字资产市场动态 The US November Core PCE Price Index will be released tonight at 23:00, and this data often has an outsized impact on the cryptocurrency market. As an important reference for Federal Reserve decisions, it directly influences liquidity expectations and investor risk appetite.

There are three possible scenarios:

**Below Expectations Scenario** (Core PCE annual rate < 2.8%): The market will quickly price in the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates early. The liquidity released by a weakening dollar usually drives $BTC and $ETH to surge rapidly. From a technical perspective, BTC may attempt to test the 92,000 level, while ETH could extend above 3,100.

**Above Expectations Scenario** (Core PCE annual rate > 2.8%): The opposite happens. Expectations of the Fed maintaining high interest rates will strengthen, the dollar remains relatively strong, and risk assets come under pressure. BTC might retest the support around 88,000, and ETH could face resistance near 2,900.

**In Line with Expectations Scenario**: Volatility tends to be relatively moderate, with a higher probability of range-bound fluctuations. However, it’s important to note that after the data release, there is often a tendency for funds to manipulate sentiment and shake out traders, so beware of false breakouts.

Such macroeconomic data releases are indeed windows for capturing short-term market moves. The key is to manage risks well—whether the news is bullish or bearish, there are tricks involved. The most important thing is execution and risk control discipline.

BTC-0,81%

ETH-3,15%

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DegenDreamer

· 7h ago

Oh no, it's this kind of market data again. Every time they say the impact exceeds expectations, but it turns out the big players are just shaking out the weak hands. --- 92,000? Wake up, my friend. Institutions have already bought everything at 88,000. --- This is the real deal. Risk control discipline is more valuable than any technical level. Otherwise, no matter how many predictions there are, they are just empty talk. --- If it falls below expectations, just push for 92k. I think that's quite unlikely. The Fed is playing suspense. --- Here we go again. Meeting expectations is the most terrifying because no one knows the direction; it's all about shakeouts and price setting. --- That's right, but the problem is that execution power is all an illusion in front of capital. A fake breakout can lead to immediate stop-loss and liquidation. --- Is PCE data really that important? It feels like there's a "new most critical data" every month.

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ShortingEnthusiast

· 7h ago

It's PCE again. Waiting for data like this every day is making me almost fall asleep. Might as well just place a bet directly. --- 88k or 92k, honestly it all depends on whether the Federal Reserve is serious or not. --- If I can't break out this time, I'll just clear my positions. Repeatedly taking losses like this is really pointless. --- I've seen through the washout tactics already. Anyway, I don't have money to be cut again, haha. --- The 23:00 market trend is really extreme. Last time PCE caused a sharp drop; could it reverse this time? --- Risk control discipline? I only have a risk hobby, haha. --- Feeling uneasy around 92k. The Federal Reserve has been unpredictable this year; who knows their true intentions.

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AlwaysAnon

· 7h ago

It's the same pattern again: if it's below expectations, push to 92k; if it's above expectations, drop to 88k. Feels like it's always like this. Always being shaken out, does no one really make money? The data isn't even out yet, and you're already writing the script. I just want to ask, will there be a rug pull tonight?

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GasFeeCryer

· 7h ago

Staying up at night to watch PCE, I must be incredibly bored... No, I am just that bored. --- It's the same old story, when expectations are below, it rises; when above, it falls. Sounds like flipping a coin. --- Damn, staying up late again. Can't these bad data be announced during the day? --- Risk control discipline? Bro, I rely on intuition. Going all-in for the thrill. --- You confidently said 92k, be careful not to get your face slapped. --- It's always these three situations. Do I need your analysis? Just look at the market chart. --- I've seen too many washouts. If you can't tell real breakouts from fake ones, don't play. --- Liquidity release sounds great, but I already moved my coins out. --- 88k support level? The last support you mentioned didn't hold either. --- Still the same advice: eat, sleep, beat the wealthy, and don't let macro data ruin your mindset.

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