1. Market Trend Deep Analysis

From multi-timeframe charts, Ethereum is currently in a rebound and consolidation phase after a sharp decline.
• Daily Chart (1D): The overall trend is downward, with the price stabilizing after touching around $2837 . Although the MACD histogram is shrinking below the zero line, DIF/DEA are still in a death cross, indicating that the bearish momentum of the major trend has not fully dissipated.
• 4-Hour Chart (4H): The price rebounded after touching $2863 and is now facing resistance at MA21 (yellow line, approximately $3089). If it cannot break through and stabilize above 3100, this rebound may only be a technical retracement.
• 1H/15M Charts: Moving averages are beginning to entangle and flatten, MACD hovers near the zero line, indicating the market entered a narrow consolidation before the US stock market opens, with trading volume decreasing as traders await the next directional move.
2. Small Stop-Loss Entry Points and Logic
If you consider ultra-short-term trading before the US stock market opens, it is recommended to focus on **“buying the dip”**, as the support around $2950-$2980 shows some strength.
• Entry Range: Around $2985 -$3000 .
• Logic: This is where multiple moving averages on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts converge, also a psychological battleground at 3000 points.
• Stop-Loss Level: Near $2945 .
• Logic: Place stop-loss below the recent small platform low on the 4-hour chart. If it breaks below $2950, it indicates very weak rebound strength, and the price is highly likely to test the bottom again or even make a new low at $2863 .
• Take-Profit Targets: First target at $3070 (4H resistance), second at $3140.
3. Pre-Open Notes for US Stocks
Since cryptocurrencies are highly correlated with US stocks (especially Nasdaq), the period before and after the market opens (around 21:30 or 22:30 Beijing time, depending on the season) is usually the most volatile:
1. Fake Breakout Risk: About 30 minutes before the US stock market opens, false breakouts such as “trap longs” or “trap shorts” often occur. Avoid chasing the market directly at the 3000 point level to prevent being manipulated by false moves.
2. Liquidity Return: Current trading volume (VOL) is relatively low, as shown in the screenshot. The US stock market opening will bring significant volatility. If Nasdaq futures weaken at open, ETH may quickly test support levels.
3. Sentiment Observation: Watch the 15-minute KDJ J value (currently around 55). If at open the J value is above 100 with volume increasing but price stagnating, it signals a potential reduction in positions.
4. Macro Indicators: Pay attention to whether US Department of Labor or Federal Reserve economic data are released that evening, as these can directly influence Ethereum through US stock market volatility.
Summary Advice
Mainly observe and wait for a pullback entry. Currently, the market is in a sideways consolidation after a decline. Although there are signs of rebound, resistance at 3050-3100 is significant. It is recommended to wait until the first wave of market shakeout after the US market opens (about half an hour after opening). If the price can still hold above 2980, consider entering long positions.