Arthur Hayes bets with Maelstrom on altcoins in 2026: maximum risk exposure

Arthur Hayes begins 2026 with a high-risk move. His investment fund Maelstrom has adopted what Hayes calls a “near-maximum risk” position, increasing its exposure to volatile and emerging assets following a strategic evolution that was shaped over the past year.

The decision marks a radical shift from the caution shown at the beginning of 2025, when Hayes predicted that Bitcoin would fall to US$70,000 in what he called a “mini financial crisis.” However, the events of that year and the macroeconomic environment transformed his perspective.

Turning aggressive: Arthur Hayes’s evolution in 12 months

In January 2025, Maelstrom had reduced risk and increased positions in fiat currency. But just four months later, the strategy was completely reversed.

In April, when Bitcoin briefly fell below US$85,000 amid tariff tensions, Hayes aggressively intensified the fund’s positions, adopting what he described as a “maximum long exposure to cryptocurrencies.”

By summer, Maelstrom was “backing the truck,” as Hayes would say, framing it as a new altcoin cycle. Conviction did not wane as the year progressed. By the end of last year, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates and expanding its balance sheet, Hayes once again accelerated his timing, stating it was “time to go shopping.”

Growing liquidity: the macroeconomic thesis supporting the bet

Behind Maelstrom’s strategy is a specific macroeconomic thesis that Hayes has refined as one of the most influential economic policy commentators in the crypto industry.

Hayes bets that the increase in nominal GDP, combined with the US deficit spending and what he considers an inevitable money printing by the Federal Reserve, will generate a wave of liquidity that will particularly benefit higher-risk assets.

He argues that this liquidity will also be driven by geopolitical moves, such as US intervention in Venezuela, which aims to keep oil prices under control through credit stimulus in the US economy.

In this scenario, lesser-known and more volatile tokens would be the main beneficiaries of this capital abundance seeking returns.

Privacy and emerging DeFi: where Maelstrom’s capital is concentrated

With this overarching thesis, Maelstrom has reconfigured its portfolio selectively but with focus.

The fund maintains minimal exposure to stablecoins, while concentrating its efforts on two types of assets: privacy coins like ZCash (ZEC, currently trading at $356.26), and emerging decentralized finance tokens that Hayes considers to be at opportunistic prices.

Hayes has specifically backed positions in altcoins like HYPE, PENDLE, and other DeFi tokens that now dominate Maelstrom’s portfolio. However, the fund has also experienced missteps, such as its costly position in PUMP.

It will continue investing the cash generated from various financing operations into Bitcoin, which now hovers around $90,050, but the real emphasis is on emerging tokens.

2025 performance and the 2026 bet: “credible” narratives backed by liquidity

Maelstrom’s performance in 2025 was profitable but inconsistent, with solid returns in BTC, HYPE, and PENDLE, contrasted with significant losses in other positions.

For 2026, Arthur Hayes now plans to rely more explicitly on narratives that, in his view, become “credible” when supported by the broader liquidity environment he anticipates.

This strategy adds to the fund’s additional investments, such as the recently revealed strategic investment in River, a stablecoin startup with cross-chain abstraction, reinforcing the vision of diversification within the crypto ecosystem.

Hayes’s strategy reflects his confidence that the global macroeconomic cycle will continue to favor crypto assets, especially those offering higher volatility and appreciation potential in a context of abundant liquidity.