Ark Investment Forecast: Bitcoin Market Cap to Reach $16 Trillion by 2030, Institutional Holdings Hit New High

【CoinDesk】Ark Invest makes a bold prediction in its latest “Important Trends in 2026” report: by 2030, the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market is expected to surpass $28 trillion, with Bitcoin leading the pack, estimated to reach $16 trillion, accounting for 60%-70% of the overall market.

Where does this number come from? It’s simple, based on the fixed supply cap of 21 million Bitcoins. Calculating from this market cap, the price of a single Bitcoin should be around $761,900—an increase of approximately 765% from the current price of $88,000. It sounds crazy, but Ark Invest’s logic is not unfounded.

They believe Bitcoin is becoming the leader among emerging institutional assets. Why? First, institutional participation is increasing; second, Bitcoin ETFs are becoming more popular, and companies are starting to include Bitcoin in their asset allocations; third, market volatility is gradually decreasing. The properties of “digital gold” will become more and more prominent.

Data speaks: by 2025, the holdings of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and listed companies have risen from 8.7% of the total circulating supply at the beginning of the year to 12%. Among them, ETF holdings increased from 1.12 million to 1.29 million coins, and the growth rate of listed companies was even more rapid—from 598,000 directly jumped to 1.09 million, a 73% increase.

It is worth noting that although the overall outlook of this report has not changed significantly, a few key assumptions have been adjusted. Given that gold increased by 64.5% in 2025, they have raised the market size that digital gold can reach by 37%. On the other hand, because the penetration of stablecoins in emerging markets is accelerating, they have actually lowered the expected role of Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset—indicating that market structure is quietly changing.