【ETH 4H Structure Projection | Framework of Bull-Bear Battle After Breakdown】

Core Structural Status
Ethereum has completed a valid breakdown of the $3000 level on the 4-hour chart. This move is not a simple retracement but a downward break of the previous overall consolidation zone, marking a qualitative change in market structure — from “bull-bear confrontation on support levels” to “bearish trend dominated after breakdown.”

Bull-Bear Logic and Key Transition

1. Bearish Dominance Logic:
· Space Opening: $3000 serves as a long-term psychological and technical resonance point. Losing it directly opens new lower price ranges. Market sentiment shifts from “can it hold” to “where will it drop,” giving bears the greatest psychological advantage.
· Resistance Solidification: The original support zone (3000-3050) has transformed into a solid resistance zone. Any attempted rebounds will face concentrated selling pressure here, forming a consensus that “a rebound is an opportunity to short.”
2. Bullish Defense Logic:
· Only Barrier: The only clear, visible support level left for bulls is the previous low at $2914. If this level is broken, it will lead to a complete collapse of bullish confidence, triggering stop-loss and panic selling.
· Potential Counterattack Conditions: For bulls to organize an effective counterattack, two conditions must be met: first, a clear bottoming structure must form around 2914 (such as multiple tests without breaking); second, the price must strongly rebound and stabilize above $3000 to invalidate the validity of this breakdown. Currently, neither condition has been met.

Future Structure Projection and Observation Anchors

· Path One (Downward Relay): Price weakly rebounds near 2914 but fails to reach $3000 and turns downward. This will form a classic “downward relay” structure, with a high probability of breaking below 2914 and seeking support at the next target of 2850 or lower.
· Path Two (Bottoming at Low Levels): Price consolidates in a range between 2914-3000 USD over an extended period, digesting selling pressure through time and gradually repairing technical indicators (such as MACD forming a bullish divergence). This is a prerequisite for trend reversal but not a sufficient condition.
· Key Observation Anchors:
1. Rebound Height: Observe the $3000-3020 zone as the maximum height of any rebound; weak rebounds may top out around 2980.
2. Support Resilience: Pay attention to the market reaction when the price first touches 2914 — whether it is pierced directly or quickly recovered.
3. Structural Formation: Watch for the emergence of bottom structures such as “double bottoms” or “bottom divergences” that require time to build.

(The market structure has already shifted, and the focus of battle has moved downward. Subscribers can access the “Key Price Level Bull-Bear Order Flow Analysis” and “Structural Evolution Projection Report.”)#欧美关税风波冲击市场