Monday Morning's USDA Production Surge Triggers Sharp Corn Selloff

Rugman_Walking · 2026-01-21T01:02:27+00:00

The corn market faced a significant downturn due to USDA's increased crop yield estimates and higher harvested acreage, raising production expectations dramatically. Despite steady export activity, ample domestic supplies discouraged market confidence, resulting in notable futures losses.

Rugman_Walking

2026-01-21 01:02:27

Abstract generation in progress

The corn market experienced significant downward pressure following Monday morning’s USDA crop assessment, with front-month contracts retreating 22-24¼ cents while deferred months lost 5-14½ cents. The CmdtyView national cash corn benchmark dropped 24 cents to settle at $3.83¼, reflecting widespread bearish sentiment across the sector.

What Triggered the Decline

The primary catalyst stemmed from USDA’s crop production estimates released during Monday morning’s data window. The agency raised US corn yield projections to 186.5 bushels per acre—a 0.5 bpa uptick from November’s forecast. More significantly, harvested acreage expanded by 1.3 million acres to reach 91.3 million, driving the production estimate up to 17.021 billion bushels, representing a 269 million bushel increase from the previous month.

The quarterly Grain Stocks report compounded selling pressure, revealing December 1st corn inventory levels at 13.282 billion bushels—substantially exceeding analyst expectations of 12.962 bbu and demonstrating year-over-year growth of 1.207 bbu. WASDE projections subsequently raised US ending stocks by 198 million bushels to 2.227 bbu, with the upward revision split between carryover increases (19 mbu) and elevated feed usage (100 mbu).

Global Supply Shifts

On the international front, world ending stocks climbed 11.76 million metric tons to 290.91 MMT, driven by both the US revision and a 6.24 MMT production boost for Chinese corn output. These broader global supply dynamics weighed on sentiment despite positive export news.

Export Activity Remains Steady

Monday morning’s Export Inspections data showed 1.49 MMT (58.66 mbu) shipped during the week ending January 8th—marking a 12.75% weekly increase and 3.4% year-over-year growth. Mexico dominated destination rankings with 702,811 MT received, followed by Japan (258,110 MT) and Taiwan (161,058 MT). The marketing year accumulation reached 28.43 MMT (1.119 bbu), reflecting a robust 60.54% pace ahead of the prior year.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s harvest progress remains minimal, with the primary crop at just 0.5% harvested as of Thursday, while second-crop plantings stand at a nascent 0.2%.

Futures Settlement Overview

Front-contract corn settled with substantial losses: March 2026 closed at $4.21½ (down 24¼ cents), May 2026 at $4.30½ (down 23¼ cents), and July 2026 at $4.38 (down 22¼ cents). Nearby cash positions finished at $3.83¼, mirroring the decline witnessed in futures markets.

The Monday morning USDA reports painted a picture of ample domestic supplies and robust export activity, yet the production surge overshadowed export strength, ultimately steering market participants toward reduced positioning ahead of the next data release cycle.

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