Global Corn Supply Dynamics Support Thursday Morning Rally

Rugman_Walking · 2026-01-20T20:03:22+00:00

The corn market shows strong prices, driven by a record ethanol production surge, improving global forecasts, and rising futures contracts. Traders await key USDA export sales data to assess demand sustainability.

Rugman_Walking

2026-01-20 20:03:22

Abstract generation in progress

The corn market is displaying persistent strength on Thursday morning, with prices climbing 1 to 2 cents as traders digest a complex mix of supply signals from across the Americas. The momentum builds on Wednesday’s session, when futures contracts posted gains ranging from 1 to 2¼ cents, signaling sustained buyer interest in the commodity.

EIA Data Fuels Bull Thesis

The most significant catalyst emerged from Wednesday’s EIA ethanol report, which revealed production surged to an all-time high of 1.196 million barrels per day—a stunning 8.92% week-over-week increase that eclipsed the previous record by 5.75%. This production surge, driven by robust refiner activity (ethanol inputs jumped 70,000 bpd to 841,000 bpd), has bolstered demand outlook for corn feedstock. Meanwhile, ethanol inventories expanded by 821,000 barrels to 24.473 million barrels, with notable buildups concentrated in the Gulf (+423,000 barrels) and East Coast (+616,000 barrels) regions—suggesting market participants are positioning for export opportunities. Export volumes ticked upward by 6,000 bpd to 119,000 bpd.

Futures and Cash Market Pricing

The rally is evident across the futures curve. Mar 26 Corn contracts closed at $4.22, up 2¼ cents with continued upside pressure. May 26 Corn finished at $4.29¾, up 2 cents, while Jul 26 Corn posted gains of 1½ cents to settle at $4.36, currently holding 2 cents higher. Cash corn at the national level reached $3.85 per bushel, reflecting a 2½ cent advance. These price moves have attracted speculative interest, with open interest expanding by 27,407 contracts on Wednesday alone.

Global Supply Picture Stabilizes

International production forecasts offer mixed signals heading into Thursday morning trading. Brazil’s output projection for 2025/26 remains essentially flat, with CONAB releasing their January estimate at 138.87 million metric tons versus December’s 138.88 MMT. Argentina’s situation shows incremental improvement, as the Rosario Grains Exchange raised its corn crop forecast by 1 MMT to 62 MMT total.

Upcoming Data Points

Traders will scrutinize USDA Export Sales data released this morning, with consensus estimates pointing toward corn sales between 0.6 and 1.4 million metric tons for the week ending January 8. These figures will help clarify whether current strength reflects genuine demand recovery or temporary volatility.

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