Bitcoin in 2025: Disappointment or Positioning for a New Cycle?

The beginning of 2026 brings critical expectations for the cryptocurrency market, as Bitcoin [BTC$91 26K1y change:-10.13%Market cap:$1.82 TV24h vol:$861.67 M]( ended 2025 without the anticipated “festive rally.” As analysts noted, the current consolidation of digital assets should not be viewed as a signal for a mass sell-off in the new year.

Weak Year-End Does Not Indicate a Bearish Trend

A significant position in the crypto market is expressed by expert Anthony Pompliano, who views short-term disappointments through the lens of Bitcoin’s long-term achievements. In his opinion, the lack of substantial growth in the last quarter does not guarantee a massive decline in the first months of 2026.

“At current volatility levels, it would be logical to assume that a 70-80% drop could occur. However, this did not happen,” — Pompliano stated during an interview. This observation indicates a certain resilience of the asset despite unrealistic market expectations.

Pompliano emphasized the historical context: Bitcoin has gained approximately 100% profit over the past two years and about 300% over a three-year period. These figures demonstrate that even in years with minimal asset growth, its long-term trajectory remains unprecedented.

Period of Expectation and Market Reassessment

The crypto market in December 2025 remained mostly calm. As analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted, the first quarter of 2026 will be crucial in determining the potential of Bitcoin’s current cycle. Investors will focus on whether the asset can sustain further growth or has already approached local highs.

VanEck, a company managing assets worth billions, issued a forecast that Bitcoin will enter 2026 with “mixed but constructive” signals. In their view, price consolidation appears more likely than sharp fluctuations in either direction.

Macroeconomic Context of Disappointment

Investor disappointment stems from numerous forecasts predicting Bitcoin reaching $250 000 by the end of the year. However, Bitcoin’s actual situation remained far from these targets, which became a destabilizing factor for market sentiment.

An important aspect is that Bitcoin’s volatility itself has decreased more significantly than the market had noticed. Pompliano emphasized that the absence of both a massive decline and a final rally at year’s end should be seen as a sign of stabilization, not market destruction.

Thus, the first quarter of 2026 will be a decisive moment for reorienting market expectations and shaping the New Year cycle for digital assets.