🚨 Most people who bought Bitcoin in the last 3–4 months are still in loss.

And this is exactly why the next move matters so much.

This chart shows STH-NUPL.

It tracks whether new buyers are sitting in profit or loss. Since November 2025, it has stayed below zero, meaning recent buyers are underwater and emotionally defensive.

For a retailer, this tells you something important: The market is not in euphoria.

There is no crowd chasing highs. There is no profit-taking pressure from new money. This is a recovery phase, not a top.

The key level is around $98K. That is where STH-NUPL flips back into positive territory.

Above that level, most new buyers become profitable again. Below it, they stay stressed and reactive.

What usually happens when this flips:

Selling pressure drops because people stop trying to exit at break-even

Dips get bought instead of sold

Momentum becomes cleaner and trend strength increases

What usually happens when it stays negative:

Rallies get sold into

Price struggles to build continuation

Market stays choppy and slow

For retailers, this is positioning data: If price reclaims and holds above ~$98K, it signals that the weakest hands are finally relieved. That is when structure shifts from recovery to expansion.

Right now, Bitcoin is not overheated. It is not crowded. It is rebuilding confidence after months of new buyers being underwater.

This is the phase where smart positioning happens before momentum becomes obvious.