Bitcoin in 2026: Between pessimism and possibilities. Analysts discuss the future of the market

The beginning of 2026 did not bring dramatic changes to the cryptocurrency market. After a turbulent 2025, when macroeconomic factors dominated internal industry dynamics, investors are awaiting clarification on the direction Bitcoin will take in the coming months.

Excessive speculation and overheated market – a pessimistic outlook

Well-known CryptoCon analyst recently published a comparison of historical Bitcoin increases across successive cycles and pointed out a clear trend: gains are becoming smaller and smaller. The peak at the end of 2025 at $126,000 confirms that Bitcoin is reaching record prices, but percentage gains are weakening.

According to CryptoCon, the current market is characterized by overheating. Excessive speculation in commodity markets and aggressive trading activity have led to dangerous tension. Even traditional safe-haven assets, such as precious metals—which have recorded the highest prices in decades—may soon undergo a correction. Considering Bitcoin’s four-year cycle peaks and decreasing investment returns, 2026 could turn out to be a disappointment for bulls.

The analyst openly warned investors that getting used to a downward trend should be a priority. A scenario repeating the pattern from 2022—when Bitcoin lost over 65% of its value—is not at all impossible.

The other side of the coin: a more optimistic view

Altcoin Sherpa presents a decidedly different perspective on the situation. His analysis focuses on the difference between the market dynamics in 2022 and the current state. Back then, Bitcoin surged (from $10,000 to $60,000), driven by frantic speculation. Now, movements are more spread out and disciplined—2024 and 2025 brought trends interrupted by long periods of consolidation.

Sherpa does not completely rule out a bearish scenario. If 2022 repeats itself, Bitcoin could fall by 30% or more. However, he believes such a scenario is less likely than continued growth. In his view, the first quarter of 2026 should bring less spectacular but stable gains, with price movements oscillating in the range of 10–30%, similar to 2024–2025.

Altcoins, on the other hand, may experience more violent fluctuations—potential multiple increases could quickly turn into sharp declines. Sherpa categorically rejects a scenario of a collapse exceeding 70%.

What will 2026 bring?

Both positions reflect the actual uncertainty prevailing in the market. Speculation is present at every level—both in traditional assets and cryptocurrencies. Investors face a choice: prepare for a possible correction or treat current levels as a starting point for further growth. The final outcome depends on the dynamics of fundamentals, decisions by central banks, and market sentiment, which could serve as an impulse for Bitcoin in 2026.