XRP tests key resistance in the fearful cat rebound — bearish structure remains unchanged

XRP today is caught in a delicate situation: technical indicators show signs of a short-term rebound, but the bearish tone on the daily chart still dominates the market. The price hovers around $1.97, attempting to break through the seemingly simple yet stubborn resistance line at $1.89. The question is— is this a genuine turning point, or just a reflexive bounce like a “scared cat” in a bearish trend?

Macro Perspective: The Daily Chart Speaks

Bitcoin accounts for over 57% of the crypto market dominance, while the overall market has declined by 0.7% in the past 24 hours. The Fear & Greed Index remains at an extreme fear level of 17. In such an environment, XRP is unlikely to strengthen independently.

From the daily chart, the situation appears somewhat dull:

Moving Average Structure

• Current Price: $1.97
• EMA 20: $2.02
• EMA 50: $2.17
• EMA 200: $2.47

A classic bearish alignment—price below all major EMAs, with each EMA below the next. This is not new, but indicates that sellers have been in control for weeks.

Momentum Signals

RSI(14) reads 36, not extremely oversold but far from bullish control. The MACD line and signal line are both in negative territory, with the histogram approaching zero—indicating downward momentum is waning, but upward momentum has yet to emerge.

Volatility and Range

Bollinger Bands show the price hugging the lower band at ($1.85), which in a bearish environment suggests persistent selling pressure but not a complete collapse. ATR is about $0.09, indicating the market is tradable but lacks explosive moves.

Short-term Play: Opportunities and Traps on 1H and 15M Charts

If the daily chart is the “big picture,” then the 1-hour and 15-minute charts are the “rules of the game today.”

1-Hour Chart: Tense Balance

Price swings between $1.88 and $1.89, with EMA 20 and 50 close together (both around $1.87-$1.89), while EMA 200 remains above at $1.96, exerting pressure. RSI stands at 53.67, slightly optimistic but not overheated.

This is a classic consolidation zone. The upper Bollinger Band at $1.89 is exactly where short-term traders are fighting. Breaking through requires sustained volume and momentum, which are currently lacking.

15-Minute Chart: Signs of Momentum Exhaustion

This is where things start to get interesting. RSI has reached 64.9, approaching overbought. The MACD momentum is flattening after rising. Price is tightly hugging the upper band ($1.89), but lacks the push to break through.

This combination often signals short-term upward moves have exhausted initial buying. Those chasing the move may be disappointed.

Market Psychology: The Scared Cat Rebound

Market sentiment is in extreme fear—what does that imply?

First, funds and institutional investors are reducing risk exposure. Liquidity is flowing into stablecoins and cash, not into volatile altcoins. Any XRP rebound is built on “panic buying” and “short covering,” not new buying interest.

It’s like a scared cat rushing out of hiding—not because danger has passed, but because it needs to move. Once it encounters the next obstacle, it’s likely to retreat again.

Two Possible Scenarios

If the bears continue to dominate:

XRP needs to break below the support zone at $1.84-$1.87. A daily close below this would target the next support at $1.85 (daily lower band). If that line is also broken, it could trigger more stop-losses, pushing the price lower.

In an environment of extreme fear, such chain reactions could unfold quickly.

If the bulls regain footing:

This requires XRP to not only break through $1.89 (1-hour resistance) but also close above $2.02-$2.04 (20-day EMA + daily midline). Achieving this would indicate genuine buying interest for a trend reversal. The next targets would be $2.17 (50-day EMA) and then $2.47 (200-day EMA).

Honestly, given the current market sentiment, this scenario is more “if” than “when.”

Today’s Trading Reality

• Trend followers still have the advantage, as the daily trend remains downward. But they are late to the party, and entering new positions in such a weak rebound is risky.

• Counter-trend traders (betting on a bounce) are fighting against the daily structure. They must protect the support at $1.84-$1.87 precisely and be ready to cut losses quickly.

Key point: Volatility is currently compressed. When it releases (regardless of direction), market participants should be prepared for rapid, sharp price swings.

XRP’s story today is simple—bears still hold the upper hand, and the short-term rebound is just a scared cat’s instinctive reaction, not a sign of any deeper structural change. Traders should respect this reality, not fight against it.