Monad Faces Critical Price Test Ahead: Will MON Hold Boxing Day Support?

Monad (MON) has surged over 29% in the past week, breaking through technical resistance on December 24 with an inverse head-and-shoulders breakout. However, beneath the surface, market internals tell a cautionary tale. As trading heads into Boxing Day (December 26), multiple layers of market data suggest MON is at a critical juncture where the upward move could either accelerate or collapse.

Capital Commitment Remains Weak Despite Price Gains

The initial breakout cleared key resistance levels, yet the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator failed to confirm the move. When CMF cannot break above zero alongside a price breakout, it signals that major institutional players are not backing the rally with capital. This was evident on December 11 as well—CMF weakness preceded a sharp price decline.

More tellingly, spot exchange flows shifted dramatically on December 22. After showing over $1 million in outflows, inflows suddenly reversed to approximately $2 million—a classic sign of profit-taking rather than conviction buying. This divergence between price action and capital flow suggests retail enthusiasm rather than institutional accumulation.

Derivatives Market Shows Early Signs Of Reversal

The perpetuals market provides the clearest picture of momentum decay. Over the past week, smart money long positions surged to $89.36 million, an increase of 99%, which perfectly coincided with MON’s breakout. This aggressive leveraged buying was the primary fuel for the move.

The last 24 hours tell a different story entirely. Smart money long exposure contracted by 12.23%, while the top 100 perpetual addresses cut positions by over 216%. Public figure positions fell by nearly 28.78%. When leveraged players start unwinding during a breakout, it typically signals exhaustion rather than strength.

Price Action Enters A Critical CFT Test Zone

MON currently sits at $0.02, facing its most important price test. The next 48 hours will determine whether this breakout holds or reverses. Here’s what the levels tell us:

Bullish Scenario: A 12-hour close above $0.026 would confirm continuation, targeting a roughly 14% extension toward $0.030. Breaking above $0.030 would finally overcome the descending resistance line that has capped rallies repeatedly.

Bearish Scenario: Support deteriorates in stages. The first line of defense sits at $0.021. A breakdown below $0.018 would weaken the entire breakout structure. A close below $0.016 would invalidate the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern entirely and potentially trigger a retest of mid-December lows.

The Boxing Day Pressure Point

Monad’s price is caught between legitimate technical strength and concerning capital flow divergence. The CMF has not confirmed the breakout, spot inflows suggest profit-taking, and derivatives leverage is already cooling. This creates an unusual setup where price has moved but market participants appear hesitant.

Boxing Day will likely serve as the crucial test that determines whether MON respects its breakout structure or surrenders the recent gains. Without fresh capital commitment from major players, the rally risks stalling at current levels.