Bitcoin still waiting to break through 90,000 USD – are institutions waiting for settlements?

The current impasse in the Bitcoin market is not accidental. While the price hovers around $93,030 (with a recent decline of 2.14% over the past 24 hours), analysts observe a surprising reality: institutions are withdrawing capital at a rate not seen since November. Data from spot ETF markets show a net outflow of $497.05 million in the week ending December 20 – the lowest negative record for this period. This explains why Bitcoin is struggling to maintain upward momentum and, instead of attacking the $90,000 level, is increasingly focused on defending the support at $86,500.

Technical Market Outlook: Consolidation Before a Breakout?

Bitcoin’s chart depicts a textbook rejection pattern. Over the past weeks of December, Bitcoin repeatedly tested the $90,000 barrier, but each time faced concentrated selling pressure. This resistance zone is not accidental – it results from technical factors, including previous support turning into resistance and the 50-day moving average.

Current market conditions show a turbulent trading range between $85,000 and $94,000. Bitcoin can only make short-term jumps above $88,000 before encountering increased selling pressure. Many indicators suggest that this phase is not the beginning of a bear market, but rather a consolidation phase where retail investors wait for clear signals, and institutions are gathering capital for the tax year-end.

Why the Holiday Season Changes the Game

The pattern is well known: from mid-December to early January, trading volumes drastically decline, and average traders shift their focus elsewhere. However, this period has historically preceded significant market moves. Analysts suggest that a breakthrough may occur from late December to early January when institutional investors return to their positions and the market gains liquidity.

Institutional restraint is key to understanding the current stalemate. Reduced buying pressure from large players means the market is mainly waiting on macroeconomic decisions and regulatory news. Retail trading naturally weakens during this period, creating ideal conditions for consolidation rather than aggressive moves.

Where is the Path to $100,000?

Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook remains bullish. After breaking the $90,000 level, Bitcoin will face relatively few technical resistances. The next significant resistance zones are in the range of $94,000–$94,600 (closest target) and $98,000–$110,000 (another barrier).

Model projections indicate that Bitcoin could reach $100,000–$110,000 by the end of December 2025 (assuming macroeconomic conditions stabilize), and early 2026 could bring a new wave of growth. The maximum supply of Bitcoin at 21 million coins, combined with increasing institutional adoption and rising regulatory certainty, maintains long-term growth potential.

What Awaits Us at the Turn of the Year?

The inability to break through $90,000 in December should not be interpreted as a sign of panic. It is a natural consolidation phase where the market gathers strength for the next big move. The key now is to maintain support at $86,500 – if Bitcoin can stabilize there, it will build a solid platform for growth in the new year.

The future of Bitcoin until early 2026 will largely depend on two factors: the ability of institutions to resume accumulation after the holiday period and the market’s capacity to generate a new upward impulse above $90,000. Patience and readiness to wait may prove to be the most valuable skills for traders in the coming weeks.