How much time is left until the passage of the comprehensive cryptocurrency bill in 2026?

The regulatory issues in the U.S. cryptocurrency industry are at a critical turning point. Next year could be a decisive year for the formalization of a comprehensive digital asset regulatory framework, but it also faces challenges from political schedules and conflicts of interest that could hinder legislation.

Industry’s Realistic Assessment: 50~60% Chance of Success

In conversations with The Block, cryptocurrency policy experts estimate a 50% to 60% probability that a comprehensive digital asset regulation law will be enacted by 2026. This optimistic outlook is based on active discussions between members of both parties, but also reflects significant technical and political obstacles that need to be addressed.

Kevin Wysocki, policy director at Anchorage Digital, assessed the likelihood of the bill passing at around 50%. He said, “Frequent communication between Republican and Democratic members of Congress is a positive sign,” but also noted, “Since it involves legislation covering banking law, securities law, and commodities law, it is a very complex situation.”

The Duality and Challenges of the Legislative Structure

Currently, two Senate committees are advancing the bill in different ways.

The Senate Banking Committee aims to clarify jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission(SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission(CFTC), and to introduce a new category called ‘auxiliary assets’ to define which crypto assets are not securities. Meanwhile, the Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees the CFTC, has proposed a draft bill granting new powers to that agency.

A spokesperson for the Senate Banking Committee stated, “Chairman Scott and the committee have made significant progress with bipartisan colleagues and aim to review the bill in early 2026.” However, the initial plan to hold a vote before the end of the year has been abandoned.

Key Conflict Point 1: Stablecoins and Interest Payments

The hottest issue between regulators and industry is the monetization of stablecoins.

Traditional Financial Sector’s Position: Banking associations argue that the existing ‘GENIUS Stablecoin Bill’ does not sufficiently restrict interest payments by stablecoin issuers. They worry this could turn stablecoins from simple payment tools into savings instruments and create ‘unfair market incentives’ in competition with traditional banks.

Cryptocurrency Industry’s Position: Conversely, industry advocates argue that offering yields on stablecoins is a sign of healthy market competition. This reflects a fundamental disagreement with the traditional bank-centered financial system.

Key Conflict Point 2: DeFi Regulation and the Shadow of Gary Gensler

Decentralized Finance(DeFi) regulation is also a core issue. Particularly, which agency will make the final decision on whether a specific token is a security or a commodity is a major concern for the industry.

Cody Carbon, CEO of the Digital Commerce Chamber, said, “The industry’s biggest concern is the possibility that the SEC will be the primary decision-maker.” He referenced the SEC’s strict stance on cryptocurrencies during former Chair Gary Gensler’s tenure, adding, “It is very concerning if the SEC follows Gensler’s approach and becomes the sole regulator deciding everything.” Concerns about how Gensler’s policy direction will influence future crypto regulation frameworks are recurring during bill negotiations.

Key Conflict Point 3: Conflicts of Interest in the Trump Administration

President Donald Trump’s financial conflicts of interest related to cryptocurrencies are also influencing legislative efforts. According to Bloomberg, Trump and his three sons earned about $620 million from the DeFi and stablecoin projects of World Liberty Financial, which they co-founded, and also hold a 20% stake in Bitcoin mining company American Bitcoin.

Additionally, the Trump and Melania meme coins launched over the weekend before his inauguration have raised concerns among lawmakers. Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis revealed that the White House was involved in discussions about ethics clauses, but the ethics clause text proposed by her and Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego was rejected.

Key Conflict Point 4: Political Impact of CFTC Vacancies

The vacancy at the CFTC has become a bargaining point. Over the past year, four commissioners—Democrat Christine Johnson, Christy Goldsmith Romero, and Republicans Caroline Van and Summer Mersinger—have resigned. Currently, Republican Caroline Van is serving as acting chair, but she will step down after the confirmation of new Chair Mike Selig.

Carbon pointed out, “No senator would want to give such significant power to a five-member commission with only one chair at the moment.” This is being used as a bargaining tool by Democrats.

Time Pressure: Early 2026 as a Critical Window

The time for passing legislation is shrinking. Carbon explained that once the Senate Banking Committee’s bill is ready, it must go through a series of steps: committee vote → integration with the Senate Agriculture version → full Senate vote. After that, it needs to be reconciled with the version passed by the House in summer.

He warned, “If the Senate bill is not reviewed in January, it will be very concerning,” adding, “At minimum, a full Senate vote within the next six weeks is necessary for a positive outlook.”

Wysocki said lawmakers have until the first half of next year to pass the bill, after which the election season will take precedence. Government funding will only continue until January 30, 2026, and if no budget agreement is reached by then, government shutdown could halt legislative progress.

Political Schedule and Competition: The Shadow of Midterm Elections

Some Senate Democrats are actually supportive of the bill and want it to pass. However, as midterm elections approach, lawmakers’ attention is likely to be diverted, and other issues like budget negotiations may take priority.

Rebeca Liao(former campaign team member of President Joe Biden), pointed out, “As midterm elections approach, Trump’s conflicts of interest in cryptocurrency could attract more attention.” She added, “The Democratic Party is shaping a message about ‘privilege,’ and issues of unfair benefits for the President and administration officials will be repeatedly criticized.”

Conclusion: Urgency of Regulatory Clarity

When asked about the possibility that the bill might not pass in 2026, Liao emphasized, “Since financial institutions are already entering the digital asset space, action must be taken.” She predicted, “For cryptocurrencies to be widely adopted, regulatory clarity is essential, so these discussions will continue.”

As Liao pointed out, if there is no legislative progress in the first half of 2026, passing the comprehensive digital asset regulation law will become even more difficult amid midterm elections and government funding issues. The future of the U.S. cryptocurrency industry hinges on the progress made over the next six weeks.