Gold Consolidates Again – History Suggests Another Powerful Rally May Be Near

Source: Coindoo Original Title: Gold Consolidates Again – History Suggests Another Powerful Rally May Be Near Original Link: Gold prices are once again approaching a critical moment, with traders closely watching whether the metal is about to repeat a pattern that has defined the entire rally since late 2023.

According to analysis shared by Rashad Hajiyev, every major pause in gold’s current bull market has followed a remarkably consistent script.

Key Takeaways

• Gold has followed a repeating cycle since October 2023: multi-month consolidation followed by strong breakouts.
• The current three-month consolidation closely resembles earlier setups that led to 25-30% rallies.
• Momentum indicators suggest consolidation rather than trend exhaustion, keeping the bullish structure intact.

Since October 2023, gold has tended to move sideways for roughly three months before breaking higher, with those breakouts delivering gains of around 25% on average. The last two upside moves were even stronger, producing rallies of roughly 30%.

Gold’s every major consolidation from the start of the present bull run from October 2023 lasted on average 3 months and yielded upon breakout on average 25%. Last two breakouts resulted in 30% gain. Present consolidation (ascending wedge) already 3 months old and ready to break out.

That historical context matters because gold now appears to be finishing another consolidation phase.

A Familiar Setup for Gold Bulls

Technically, the current structure resembles an ascending wedge that has been developing for about three months. This mirrors earlier consolidation phases that preceded powerful upside extensions. In previous instances, once price resolved higher, momentum accelerated quickly as sidelined buyers rushed in.

If the pattern holds, a breakout of similar magnitude would imply another double-digit percentage move. Analysts argue that a move on the order of 30% would not be unusual given past behavior, a scenario that could push gold toward the $6,000 area over time.

Short-term Indicators Show Consolidation, Not Weakness

On the shorter time frame, the 4-hour chart shows gold holding near recent highs after a strong advance. Momentum indicators suggest digestion rather than distribution.

The MACD has rolled over slightly from elevated levels, with the histogram turning mildly negative. This typically signals cooling momentum rather than a trend reversal, especially when it happens after a sustained rally. RSI is hovering in the low-to-mid 50s, indicating neutral conditions and leaving room for a renewed push higher if buying pressure returns.

Volume has also remained relatively steady, reinforcing the idea that the market is consolidating rather than unwinding aggressively.

Why the Broader Trend Still Favors Higher Prices

Zooming out, the broader structure remains decisively bullish. Higher highs and higher lows are still intact, and previous consolidation zones have acted as launchpads rather than tops. Each pause has reset momentum without breaking the underlying uptrend.

As long as gold continues to hold above key support zones established during the recent range, the technical case for another upside resolution remains intact. For many traders, the question is not whether gold breaks out again, but when.