Even with heightened geopolitical tensions pushing oil prices around, don't expect a dramatic oil-risk premium to stick around. Here's why: global markets are drowning in oversupply. The flood of crude into the system means any spike tied to geopolitical drama gets capped pretty quickly. Volatility? Sure, that's going to keep happening. But sustained price pressure from geopolitical risk? That's getting absorbed by the sheer weight of available supply. This matters beyond energy markets—when traditional commodities move sideways despite geopolitical noise, it tells you something about how the broader economy is behaving, including asset class dynamics and risk repricing across markets.