Gold prices near record highs as FOMC warning... A rally driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary policy

Gold continues its upward trend, surpassing the historic high of $4,600. After hitting a record high immediately following the Asian market opening on Monday, it experienced a slight pullback, but the buying momentum remains strong over the past three trading days. Several layered risk factors are driving this rise.

Global Hotspot, Intensified Safe-Haven Preference

The primary force moving the gold market now is geopolitical uncertainty. Political turmoil in Venezuela, social instability in Iran, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, and resource conflicts between China and Japan are escalating tensions simultaneously in various regions.

Of particular note is the direct impact on energy infrastructure. Ukrainian drone attacks damaged Russia’s Volgograd oil fields, and ongoing Russian hypersonic missile retaliations are deepening energy supply concerns. At the same time, China has restricted rare earth exports to Japan, expanding supply chain risks.

In this environment, investors instinctively flock to gold. Gold remains the ultimate safe asset that does not lose value regardless of circumstances.

Fed Independence Controversy, Dollar Weakness Pressure

Meanwhile, the debate over the independence of the U.S. central bank also supports gold’s rise. When Fed Chair Jerome Powell made comments related to criminal charges threats, concerns grew that future monetary policy decisions could face political pressure. This has led to a decline in dollar confidence, boosting gold demand.

Employment Data and Rate Cut Expectations Adjustment

There are also positive signals. The U.S. employment data released last Friday somewhat eased expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Fed in 2026. The December unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, but new non-farm payrolls came in at 50,000, significantly below the expected 60,000.

This employment weakness is interpreted as a sign of economic slowdown, raising expectations that the rate cut cycle could be longer than initially anticipated. However, upcoming U.S. inflation data scheduled for this week will clarify inflation trends, making it difficult for the market to establish a clear direction until then.

Technical Signals: Continued Uptrend Amid Overheating Signs

From a technical analysis perspective, recent gold gains are progressing within a relatively well-defined upward channel. The 200-day moving average($4,325~$4,320) acts as a dynamic support level, and the MACD remains in positive territory, indicating ongoing bullish momentum.

However, the RSI index has reached 71.82, entering overbought territory, increasing the likelihood of a short-term correction. The first support level is around $4,365, near the lower boundary of the channel, which could serve as a key support. If this level holds, the overall upward trend is unlikely to be compromised.

Key Points to Watch This Week

FOMC officials’ statements and U.S. inflation data are the key variables. Clarification of the Fed’s monetary policy stance will make the market’s direction more apparent. Particularly, the inflation indicators to be released this week could be decisive in determining the future rate path.

Currently, gold continues its upward trend amid geopolitical tensions and monetary policy uncertainties. While a short-term correction is possible, the fundamental upward momentum is likely to persist.