The US stock market in 2026 faces a new shift: How will policy adjustments during election years impact the market?

【Block Motion】 Recently, there have been quite a few fluctuations in the US stock market, and the behind-the-scenes driver is worth noting — that is, the upcoming midterm elections. Analysts have introduced a concept called “Big MAC trading,” which simply means that policy changes before and after the elections will become the main driving force in the market.

Trump has been very active early this year, with actions that drew a lot of attention. From demanding credit card companies to cut interest rate caps to 10% (which is less than half of the current average rate), to ordering defense contractors to stop dividends and reinvest in production, and even criticizing the Federal Reserve’s independence — all these actions point to the same goal: to boost momentum for the November congressional elections, while claiming to address the “living cost crisis” to garner support.

How sensitive is the market to these reactions? Just look at last week’s performance. When the credit card interest rate policy was announced, bank stocks plummeted; after the military companies were ordered to stop dividends, the entire defense sector also suffered; and with doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence, Wall Street was filled with gloom.

The most tricky issue here is: before the elections, policy adjustments targeting specific industries will become more frequent, but no one really knows how to hedge against these risks now. This is a new challenge for the stock market — past routines may no longer apply. For investors, the coming months could be a test period.