2026-01-13 23:47:30

A well-known market maker, Wintermute, recently shared an interesting perspective: to achieve a true recovery in the crypto market by 2026, at least one of the following three conditions must be met.

First is the expansion of ETF and digital asset treasury allocations. Currently, the hot topics mainly revolve around BTC and ETH. If traditional financial institutions start expanding their allocations to other digital assets, it indicates an increased professional recognition of the market, which could open new growth opportunities.

Second is a significant rise in mainstream assets. This is straightforward—when leaders like BTC and ETH surge again, the entire market will experience a noticeable wealth effect, attracting more attention.

The third is the return of retail investors. Funds and attention flowing back into the crypto market, especially with increased retail activity, often signals a shift in market sentiment and the beginning of a new cycle.

Each of these three paths has its focus. Whichever one occurs first could be a signal of the market turning around.

BTC3,15%

ETH5,91%

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AlphaLeaker

· 5h ago

To be honest, instead of waiting for these three conditions, it's better to see if institutions are actually pouring in real money... The Wintermute logic sounds good, but the most ridiculous thing is the retail return. People are already scared of being liquidated, will they come back?

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StealthMoon

· 5h ago

To be honest, I believe the most promising path is for retail investors to return. Institutional methods are too slow; it still depends on the retail investors to carry the torch.

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GovernancePretender

· 5h ago

To be honest, I favor the second option the most among these three paths. After all, retail investors tend to follow the trend, so mainstream assets need to surge first.

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GasWhisperer

· 5h ago

nah wintermute's just painting three exits from the same mempool... one of them's gotta clear eventually, right? watched the gwei patterns too long to believe in coincidence anymore

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AirdropChaser

· 5h ago

Haha, it's the same old story. Isn't it just waiting for the bull run of Bitcoin and Ethereum to take off? --- The most realistic path for retail investors to return is to see if we can have another wave like the madness of 2021 this year. --- Expanding ETF scope... Dream on. Wall Street now only recognizes BTC and ETH; other altcoins simply can't make it to the table. --- It seems like all conditions need to be met; relying on just one factor is hardly enough for a real recovery. --- It's already 2026 again... Alright, I'll stop investing for now and see what happens next year. --- I believe in the rise of mainstream assets, but retail investor return is just nonsense. They will always be the last to take the hit.

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