2026-01-13 18:37:11

What exactly happened in the OTC market in 2025-2026?

The core insight is quite shocking: the traditional 4-year cycle has become invalid.

We used to predict the entire crypto market trend based on Bitcoin halving—once every 4 years. But now, this logic no longer applies. Why? Because the market structure has changed.

The most critical change is: liquidity has become extremely fragmented.

No longer is it an era where "when prices rise, everything rises; when prices fall, everything falls." Now, selective liquidity dominates—certain projects and sectors can attract funds, while others cannot survive. The allocation strategies of large funds have completely changed; they are no longer passively following market cycles but actively choosing targets.

This change in the OTC market reflects a deeper phenomenon: increased institutionalization and more differentiated strategies among market participants. Small retail investors are still waiting for the next bull market, but big funds are already making structural choices.

What does this mean for traders? Simply put, don’t just focus on macro cycles anymore.

BTC4,39%

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BearMarketBuyer

· 9h ago

Wow, is the 4-year cycle really dead? I'm still waiting for the halving. Retail investors are just waiting to be harvested; big funds have already chosen their tracks. Selective liquidity, to put it simply, is the Matthew effect. So what can I still buy at the bottom now? It's all fragmented pits.

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GateUser-afe07a92

· 9h ago

Damn, the 4-year cycle is dead? So I’ve wasted the past two years for nothing.

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ChainProspector

· 9h ago

Honestly, the 4-year cycle should have died long ago. People still focusing on the halving date are a bit out of sync. I've long felt the fragmentation of liquidity—some coins take off while others lie dormant. It's not as simple as rising and falling together. The key is that big funds have already chosen their tracks. Are retail investors still waiting for the next big trend? The gap is quite significant. It seems I need to change my strategy and not just focus on macro factors. This wave of institutionalization has truly changed the game. Picking the wrong project, no matter how good the cycle is, won't help.

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SlowLearnerWang

· 9h ago

Wow, I was wondering why it’s been getting harder to choose coins lately… Turns out the big players stopped playing the 4-year cycle a long time ago, while we retail investors are still waiting for the halving. They’ve already started structural selection, and the gap is really huge.

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MetaMaskVictim

· 9h ago

The 4-year cycle should have been discarded long ago. Now it's just big players picking the stocks, while retail investors are still lining up and waiting for the bull market.

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