As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the Bitcoin market is starting to stir again. Many are asking: Is there really a pattern to election-year market movements? Can we bet on the volatility brought by elections?

Let's first review the historical record. During the 2018 midterm elections, Bitcoin didn't give institutions any face—dropping from $6,000 all the way down to $3,200, and not recovering before or after the election. That period was right in a bear market cycle. By 2022, the situation was completely different. The price fluctuated between $18,000 and $24,000, and after the election settled, the Fed slowed its rate hikes, leading to a nice rebound.

See the pattern? Elections are not the main event driving the market. What truly influences the market are macro policies, large institutional position changes, and regulatory attitude shifts. These are the three key factors that determine the direction of the price.

What about the current situation in 2026? It looks a bit complicated. On one hand, institutions like MicroStrategy haven't been idle. By early this year, Saylor and his team had accumulated over $12.5 billion worth of Bitcoin. This large reserve acts like ballast, providing a floor for the price.

On the other hand, the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. has become clearer from being vague. Although no substantial policies have emerged from Powell-related investigations yet, the market is rife with expectations of "regulation easing"—this sentiment can drive market movements. Plus, before the Spring Festival, altcoins are expected to heat up, likely diverting some funds into Bitcoin. So, in the short term, Bitcoin is probably just oscillating within a certain range, unlikely to skyrocket.

For us ordinary traders, rather than betting on whether elections will cause waves, it’s better to focus on two real data points: what actual impact the Fed's rate decisions will have, and whether spot ETF funds are truly entering or quietly leaving the market. Because, at the end of the day, historical patterns are a reference, but the real flow of money and market sentiment are what ultimately determine your account's profit or loss.